아세안

Abstract

Indonesia has strengthened policy and reserve buffers since mid 2013, in the face of global headwinds from the commodity down-cycle and episodes of volatility affecting emerging market economies. Policies have aimed at containing external and inflation pressures, helping to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability. With growth slowing, the new government is keen to jump start supply-side reforms aimed at raising potential growth while strengthening the external position. Upfront actions to curb fuel subsidies have opened fiscal space to support infrastructure spending. Near-term outlook: After slowing in 2014, growth is projected to tick up to 5.2 percent in 2015, factoring in an anticipated jump in public investment in infrastructure. Inflation has temporarily risen on earlier fuel price increases, but is expected to return to within the target band by year end. Notwithstanding soft commodity prices, the current account deficit is projected to narrow further in 2015. Risks to the outlook arise mainly from a deeper•than-expected slowdown in emerging market trading partners and surges in global financial market volatility, which could exacerbate strains on the domestic banking and corporate sectors. Policy mix: The current policy mix aims at improving growth potential while consolidating recent stability gains and containing vulnerabilities. Fiscal policy should be geared towards securing space for more social and capital spending, underpinned by a broad-based strategy for increasing nonoil tax revenues, while pursuing moderate deficit reduction over the medium term. Monetary policy needs to remain focused on anchoring inflation expectations and facilitating external adjustment, supported by continued exchange rate and bond yield flexibility. Bank funding pressures, while showing signs of easing, will need to be managed through stronger policy coordination and improved market functionality. Financial stability is expected to be preserved through enhanced risk assessment and effective prudential measures, anchored by a strong crisis management framework. Structural reforms should be aimed at easing supply bottlenecks and improving the investment climate in order to create new jobs, bolster medium-term growth prospects, and strengthen the external position.