국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 필요성 및 목적
2. 연구의 구성

제2장 노동소득분배율 국제 비교
1. 노동소득분배율의 측정
2. 노동소득분배율의 측정 결과
3. 노동소득분배율의 국가간 비
4. 소결

제3장 노동소득분배율 결정요인 분석
1. 개방경제에서의 노동소득분배율
2. 노동소득분배율 결정요인
3. 노동소득분배율 결정요인에 관한 실증분석
4. 소결

제4장 노동소득분배율 결정요인의 후생효과 분석을 위한 구조모형
1. 이론적 배경
2. 모형
3. 모형의 추정 및 후생효과 분석
4. 소결

제5장 결론 및 정책방향
1. 결론
2. 정책방향

참고문헌

Executive Summary
 

   The decline in labor share is recognized as a global phenomenon. Concerns have been raised that this trend will exacerbate the income inequality between business owners as capitalists and households as the labor suppliers, prompting a decline in household income and consumption, which are major driving forces for sustainable growth. Meanwhile, various policy measures have been introduced to raise the labor share, with the aim of correcting inequality and boosting growth. This study explores the determinants of labor share and analyzes the effects of these factors on the economy and social welfare, offering various interpretations and policy alternatives according to economic conditions.
   Chapter 2 shows the difficulty in measuring the labor share, which is defined as the share of labor income in the national income. The measurement of labor income is an issue of particular controversy due to differing opinions on how to handle the self-employed, that is, the separation of labor income from self-employment income. Under- or over-estimation of the labor share is rooted in this difference. Details must be taken into account when interpreting the results, as the possibility of transmitting wrong signals cannot be ruled out under the current policy framework.
   In Chapter 3, the effects of globalization on the labor share is examined using a  panel data analysis. Trade openness, foreign direct investment, and international investment position are considered as proxies of globalization. The estimation results confirmed the followings. First, the labor share declines with the advent of globalization, and trade openness has greater effect than foreign direct investment. However, the expansion of international investment has little impact on labor share. Second, the labor share is found to be more affected by globalization when the income of the self-employed is considered. Third, expansion of social security funds raises the labor share. As globalization is a mega-trend beyond the control of a small open economy, a decline in labor share should be considered as a by-product. Moreover, redistribution policy can work as an inclusive policy alternative.
   Chapter 4 examines the theoretical aspects of labor share. Along with the imperfect competitive structure in the product and factor market, the CES production function is considered in analyzing the impact of structural shocks on the labor share. In this analysis, the effects on social welfare were also identified, including the effects on key macro variables. In a simple static setting with market concentrations and capital-labor complementarity, the labor share can increase with the introduction of redistributive policies such as minimum wage and unemployment benefits. An empirical analysis using the structural dynamic model of Korea shows that the labor share increases as a result of capital-augmenting technological progress accompanied by a decrease in the relative price of investment goods. In contrast, labor-augmenting technological progress lowers relative wages but also reduces working hours, consumption, and the labor share. In this case, however, the decrease in disutility due to the reduced working hours is relatively large and the social welfare increases in the short run. These results imply that social welfare can be reduced while labor share increases. This indicates that not only the components in the national account but also employment market statistics should be taken into account when the labor share is considered as a policy indicator.
   Implications for the effects of globalization can also be found in the model. Increasing monopoly power of firms and labor supply, respectively, lead to an increase in price markup and wage markup. First, the opening of the domestic market increases the competitiveness of domestic firms from restructuring such as exiting and merger of marginal firms, which results in higher market concentration. This lowers the labor share through rising price markup in the model and reduces social welfare. On the other hand, when foreign capital flows in due to the opening of the financial market, the pressure on flexible labor market increases, which lowers the wage markup by reducing the labor share.
   Chapter 5 concludes with policy suggestions: improving the trade adjustment assistance program, supporting growth through globalization of SMEs, and establishing a fair supplier-buyer relationship in the supply chain.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 연구방법 및 구성·범위
3. 연구의 의의 및 한계

제2장 한국의 직업교육 ODA  현황 및 인력수요 조사방법
1. 한국의 직업교육 ODA 현황
2. 한국 직업교육 ODA 사업의 인력수요 조사방법
3. 소결: 인력수요 조사방법 개선의 필요성

제3장 신흥국 산업인력 수요전망 방법론: 전통적 방법
1. 정량분석
2. 정성분석
3. 분석방법의 결합

제4장 신흥국 산업인력 수요전망 방법론의 시범적용: 베트남
1. 베트남 적용 이유 및 의의
2. 계량분석 결과
3. 기업체 설문조사 결과
4. 이해관계자 면담조사 결과
5. 정량분석과 정성분석의 결합: 무선통신장비 제조업의 중기 인력수요 전망

제5장 신흥국 산업인력 수요전망의 새로운 접근방법 모색
1. 새로운 분석방법론 모색의 필요성
2. 국제 분업체계에 따른 글로벌 가치사슬 분석 접근
3. 디지털 데이터 접근에 따른 빅 데이터 분석

제6장 맺음말

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) programs are a critical area within the official development assistance (ODA) mandate of Korea. Korea is implementing TVET projects in a wide range of regions, including Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Africa. Considering the increasing demand for TVET from developing countries, Korea is expected to continue and expand its TVET projects. Korea has not been conducting systematic labor market forecast in the preparation and implementation of TVET projects. Developing systematic labor forecast methods and increasing predictability of labor demand should precede actual hardware supports, including the construction of job training centers and distribution of training materials as well as curriculum development, in order to increase the efficiency of TVET projects. However, the labor demand forecasts conducted by Korea up to now largely fall short of these expectations.
   This study aims to develop systematical labor forecast methods, thereby contributing to increasing the efficiency of TVET ODA. Towards this, the study suggests a labor forecast method that considers characteristics of developing countries, and applies the method to Vietnam as a pilot application. Based on the results, this study estimates Vietnam’s future labor demand by industry and by occupation. In addition, this study introduces alternative labor market projection methods that can possibly deal with new changes observed in the labor markets of emerging countries.
   Chapter 2 reviews Korean TVET ODA projects and evaluates the demand side of the projects, for instance whether any labor market forecasts had been conducted for these projects or not, and the scope and method of labor market forecast. We examine project proposals, project validity studies, and evaluation studies for evaluating how much the demand side was considered in the process of implementing TVET projects.
   In Chapter 3, as a precursor to developing an alternative labor projection method, we introduce labor forecast models used in developing and advanced countries and compare their characteristics. Labor forecast studies started as the issue of effective human resource allocation emerged as a national task for many countries after World War Ⅱ. Accurate macroeconomic projection is critical for labor forecast, because labor demand is basically derived demand generated as the aggregate demand of economic increases. Recently, econometric methods based on the general equilibrium model are largely used in order to include inter-related effects of sectors, by using population, macroeconomic, industrial, and labor time series data. As the model becomes larger, several countries divide the economy into several blocks (e.g. macroeconomy, international economy, labor market, etc.) and focus on the dynamic estimation in each block. Furthermore, qualitative methods are used to take account for the impact of emergence of new industries and decline of existing industries due to technological innovation and international trade environmental change.
   In Korea, the Korea Employment Information Service was established to perform projections of labor demand and supply starting from 2006. This labor forecast reflects changes in population, society, economy, and industry structure. The projection model is largely composed of a section dealing with aggregate labor supply and demand forecast, and a forecast of new labor force. The section on aggregate labor supply and demand forecast estimates the stock of labor supply and demand based on the composition and trends in the labor force, and industrial growth prospects. The section on new labor force forecast estimates the flow of labor supply and demand and the supply-demand gap for a certain time period and looks at how new labor supply and demand change by education, major, and technology. The labor supply forecast estimates the labor force based on population prospects using census data and economic participation rate projections using labor force survey data. The labor demand forecast estimates real value-added based on industry prospects using an industry-macro econometric model with national income account data, and labor demand forecast by industry by multiplying employment coefficients earned from labor and production time series data by industry. This is used for estimating labor demand forecast by industry and occupation in addition to an estimated industry-occupation labor demand matrix. Finally the recursive structure of the model satisfies the matched aggregate labor supply and demand at the natural unemployment rate level. Labor forecast methods used in most advanced countries are similar to the Korean model. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics model uses segmented data by industry and occupation, while the Dutch ROA model is characterized by segmenting and forecasting job prospects by sector or level of education in the underlying labor markets.
   In most developing countries, the lack of statistics data or forecasting capacity and experience makes it difficult to implement a systematic labor market forecast. Some countries are developing methodologies to build statistical information and forecasts for industrial labor demand with the support of international organizations such as the International Labor Organization or donor countries. However, these projects are likely to end as one-time events while performing forecasts on industrial labor demand involves huge expense and experts. This makes it difficult to systemize and maintain the industrial labor demand forecasting system independently.
   Quantitative and qualitative analysis have different strengths and weaknesses. It is necessary to increase prediction power through a “combination” of the analytical methods rather than relying on any one method. Combining analytical methods needs more time and cost than using one method, but various methods can be utilized to increase the reliability of predictions.
   In Chapter 4, we applied our labor forecasting methodology to Vietnam, an exemplary emerging country, to estimate future labor demand by industry and occupation, as a pilot analysis that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses for emerging countries. Vietnam was chosen for the pilot because of the following reasons. The level of labor market statistics is relatively high compared to other emerging economies, while the manufacturing industry, a key industry in vocational education ODA projects, accounts for a high proportion in the economy. Also, Vietnam is the largest recipient of TVET assistance from Korea. First of all, we use data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam to forecast labor demand for 20 major classification industries and nine major classification occupations. Based on the forecasting methodology used in Korea, the outlook for industrial and occupational classification was implemented, but due to the characteristics of emerging countries that have short time series data and less stable macroeconomic prospects, we could only perform a mid-term forecast for the period of 2019 to 2024. Our results indicate a significant trend difference by industry though the total number of employees is expected to increase by 0.5% annually on average by 2024. Employment in the manufacturing sector is expected to increase by 2.4% per year, while employment in primary industries such as the agricultural and mining sectors is expected to decrease by 0.8% to 3.1% per year. By occupation, employment in professional groups is expected to increase by 5.3% per year, while elementary occupations and skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers are expected to decrease by 1.9% to 3.5% per year. In addition, according to the purpose of this study, we implemented a labor demand forecast for detailed industries and occupations within the manufacturing industry, which is at the core of vocational training. Due to the lack of detailed statistics on the manufacturing industry within the data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, we chose to use data taken from the UNIDO Industrial Statistics (INDSTAT) Database 4 on value-added and number of employees by industries in the manufacturing industry. Total employment in the manufacturing industry is expected to increase by 1.7% annually during the 2017-2024 period. Employment in the manufacture of communication equipment (Industry 263 in ISIC Rev. 4) increased by 47.3% and 35.8% annually for 2007-2012 and 2013-2016, respectively, but the annual growth rate of employment in this sector is expected to adjust to 3.9% annually during 2017-2024.
   Currently, traditional quantitative forecasting methods can be applied only to 161 minor groups (3 digits) of industries in Vietnam, because unit-level (4 digits) statistics have not been fully established. Accordingly, using non-traditional methods is necessary in labor forecast for further detail industries at unit level. We applied a hybrid method of quantitative and qualitative approaches to the manufacture of wireless communication equipment, one of the most prominent sectors recently in the Vietnamese manufacturing industry, and given that TVET projects mostly target the manufacturing sector, this study chose model cases among the manufacturing industries. Import and export statistics, enterprise survey, and interview of Vietnamese government officials and experts on Vietnamese industry are conjointly used in the labor forecast of wireless communication equipment, based on the quantitative projection of its upper level category, the manufacture of communication equipment. UNIDO currently provides data on the Vietnamese communication equipment manufacturing industry at minor group level, thus an enterprise survey was implemented in order to gain more detailed statistics. Since the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) does not specify unit level categories, we follow the Korean Standard Industrial Classification (KSIC) and divide the manufacture of communication equipment industry into manufacture of “wire communication equipment” and “broadcasting and wireless communication equipment (hereinafter wireless communication equipment).” We conducted an enterprise survey in only one of the two unit level industries due to time and budget concerns. Considering how cellular phones and relevant parts take a large part of Vietnamese exports, the manufacture of wireless communication equipment was selected for our enterprise survey. The enterprise survey asked respondents for their outlooks on the industry, the current employment status and future labor demand of the industry, and the future labor demand of three types of occupation (professionals, technicians and associate professionals, plant and machine operators and assemblers) that are closely related to TVET ODA within the industry. In order to compare trend changes over time, survey questions on the future outlook were subdivided into short-term (next year) and medium-term (next five years) expectations. Most of the respondents were foreign-owned companies, with companies producing cellular phones and related parts constituting a substantial part. Additionally, the portion of large companies with 500 or more employees was relatively large in the sample compared to the portion of large companies in the entire Vietnamese industry. Regarding the development of the wireless communication equipment industry, most companies evaluated the industry as showing stable growth. Particularly, enterprises with 500 or more employes appeared to have more positive expectations on the future of the industry. With regard to labor demand, more than half of the respondents had employed workers during the previous year. Among them, newly established companies, defined as companies established within the past five years, were more actively hiring new employees. Considering the future labor demand, most enterprises answered that they plan to further increase their employees over the medium term (five years) than over the short term (one year). The labor demand for the three occupations asked in the survey is expected to gradually increase over the medium term. The demand for “plant and machine operators and assemblers,” in particular, was higher than demands for other occupations. In the longer term, together with the technological development of Vietnam, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” occupation can possibly replace unskilled elementary occupations. In order to include qualitative analysis in our hybrid-type of labor forecasting method, we interviewed Vietnamese stakeholders in institutes and ministries in charge of economy planning, economic forecast, and statistics. The interviews aimed to identify the characteristics and problems of the Vietnamese labor market, stakeholders’ expectations on the outlook of wireless communication equipment industry and labor demand, and the demand for TVET assistance. The information collected from interviews was used in adjusting estimated labor demand by industry and occupation, gained from a combination of quantitative analysis and enterprise survey, and in deriving policy implications for TVET assistance. Firstly, the Vietnamese labor market is characterized by a large informal sector, less skilled workers, and substantial portion of foreign-owned companies in labor-intensive industries. Secondly, the experts’ opinions on the outlook of wireless communication equipment were divided into largely positive and negative expectations. Some experts predicted that the wireless communication equipment industry would continue to show a high level of growth, and accordingly, labor demand growth rate would be high. These experts suggested the possibility of foreign direct investment increasing, the Vietnamese government’s drive to promote wireless communication equipment industry, and local enterprises’ participation in cellular phone production as factors supporting their views. On the other hand, other experts with a somewhat pessimistic view expected a slowdown in the growth of the wireless communication equipment industry. These respondents presented the decrease in Samsung Electronics’ production in Vietnam, and the possible decrease in foreign investment due to lack of capacity among local laborers and enterprises as arguments for their opinions. Lastly, regarding TVET ODA, the demand for training of unskilled laborers is high.
   Finally, we combined the quantitative analysis, enterprise survey, and stakeholder interview, and subsequently estimated labor demand for the three key occupations in the Vietnamese wireless communication equipment industry. To be specific, we estimated the industry prospect of the wireless communication equipment industry, the overall labor demand prospect of the industry, and the labor demand for the three occupations in the industry, by applying the result of our enterprise survey to the estimated value added of the Vietnamese communication equipment industry calculated in Chapter 4 and trade statistics. The estimated numbers were adjusted to reflect the result of stakeholder interviews to supplement the lack of data. According to the quantitative analysis, the communication equipment industry annually grew by about 60% for the last 10 years, and accordingly its largest subdivision, the wireless communication equipment industry, was estimated to have expanded at a similar rate. Regarding the future prospects of the wireless communication equipment industry, the quantitative analysis estimated that this growth rate would slow to 20% per year over five years. Considering the survey results and interviews supporting views that the growth rate of the industry in the next five years will be 5?10%, however, the medium-term growth rate of the industry was adjusted to 10%. Concerning the labor demand, the annual employment growth rate was estimated at around 2% for the next five years, based on combining the trend of employment inducement coefficient from quantitative analysis, the enterprise survey, and stakeholder interviews. Currently, element occupations take the largest portion in the labor demand by industry and occupation, but over the next five years, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” group is expected to gradually increase, thus becoming the largest occupation group in the wireless communication equipment industry in the near future.
   This study estimated labor demand by occupations in the wireless communication equipment industry in Vietnam, by combining quantitative analysis and quantitative survey. This method is readily applicable to other emerging countries. Although most emerging countries have less-detailed labor statistics compared to Vietnam, many of them still provide time series data on the major (1 digit) and sub-major (2 digits) group level. Thus, quantitative analysis, one of the bases for our new method, is feasible on these levels. Furthermore, many developing countries are establishing national and labor statistics system with the help of the International Labor Organization and other developed countries. Therefore, in the medium and longer term, the use of quantitative analysis is likely to increase.
   For the labor demand forecast in the industry integrated in the international division of labor, the Global Value Chain method introduced in Chapter 5 can be applied. When considering the active participation of emerging countries in global value chains, this method may be practical. Lastly, big data analysis, which has been used but limitedly so far even in advanced countries, can also be practically used to forecast labor demand in developing countries, taking increased internet use and online job advertisements in these countries into account. While the big data method has certain disadvantages considering the large informal sector in developing countries, this method also has some advantages compared to traditional labor demand surveys, such as being cost-efficient and increasing the frequency of information collection. As the method can immediately reflect labor market changes in the labor forecast, it could be widely useful in emerging industries rather than traditional industries. ODA implementing agencies would benefit from paying attention to the labor forecasting methods presented in this research and devise policies supporting these methods in order to properly apply these methods in reality.
 

국문요약 

제1장 브라질과 멕시코 환경시장 연구 목적 / 연구내용 및 방법
1. 환경 이슈 및 환경시장 연구
2. 연구방법

제2장 브라질과 멕시코 환경시장 및 환경정책 발전과 한계
1. 경제발전 전망: 2019~20년
2. 환경시장 발전 전망
3. 시대별 환경 이슈와 정책 변화

제3장 브라질의 환경 정책·기술·투자 현황
1. 브라질 환경정책 현황
2. 브라질 환경기술 산업
3. 브라질 환경시장 투자

제4장 멕시코의 환경정책·기술·투자 현황
1. 멕시코 환경정책 이행과 한계
2. 멕시코 환경산업 기술
3. 멕시코 환경시장 투자

제5장 진출방안
1. 브라질 환경산업 및 시장 진출방안
2. 멕시코 환경산업 및 시장 진출방안
3. 한국 정부와 기업의 브라질-멕시코 환경협력 선호도 평가

제6장 결론

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   In the 2010s, the Latin American environmental market has been developing with a stable growth trend particularly in the pollution treatment industry, such as water quality, air pollution and waste management. At the same time, environmental markets such as new energy production and management industries (renewable energy development, storage, etc.) are rapidly growing in terms of efficient use of resources. At the same time, the environmental market has been developing in response to climate change by strengthening international cooperation in the field of climate change, which is a global agenda, and improving the efficiency of resource and energy use as well.
   Korea’s entry into the Latin American environmental market is traditionally the environmental market with a traditional concept of air pollution prevention and monitoring, water quality management and waste management. It is also focused on emerging climate change-related industries (eg renewable energy development). Of course, the environmental restoration and knowledge service sectors, which are regarded as promising environmental markets in the future, are expected to gradually expand overseas in line with the development of the domestic environmental industry. In particular, the advancement of renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) related to climate change has already begun to use the ‘Public-Private Partnership (PPP)’ investment method, which is likely to develop into a leader for the next-generation environmental market as well as the potential for future business.
   The environmental market concept which this research focused on covers the market of goods and services with three fields of industry with its strength and one promising sector. The assessment of possibility for entering the environmental market and market potential in Brazil and Mexico is not limited to the evaluation of technology demand, it is also included policy demand for the development of the environmental market. For example, included with country’s national plan for the development of the environmental industry with both country’s environmental policy and environmental law.
   In Chapter 2, this paper investigated environmental issues and policy changes over time in Brazil and Mexico, based on the historical approach with environmental law and institution change and development for a long time since the early of 20th century.
   Chapters 3 and 4 analyzed the environmental industry policy and technology status in four sectors in Mexico and Brazil from the integrated perspective of ‘policy-technology-investment’ relationship. In addition, through these chapters it is also analyzed comparatively the financial and investment efforts of the Federal and Central Governments in both countries. in addition this analysis was extended to the areas of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), various investments by international environmental organizations who are representing the region, and ODA investment approaches by the EU and developed countries as well. In Chapter 5, this paper tried to find ways for Korean governments and enterprises to enter Mexican and Brazilian environmental markets, such as concrete action plans for entering new market. This chapter also attempted to analyze the market potential of promising sectors which are likely to enter the next generation.
   Focusing on the development of ‘environmental policy’ in Brazil and Mexico, the following are the real action plans to enter the Brazilian and Mexican market in consideration of environmental technology and future environmental investment factors.
   Firstly, looking at the development of environmental markets in Brazil and Mexico by age, it is observed that the markets have been developed from the early policy interests in ‘air pollution’ to the water resource management in the 1990s, the waste management in the 2000s, and the climate change field with increasing market potential currently. As observed the historical change or transformation characters of environmental issues in Brazil and Mexico and the changes in technological demands of each period, Korea’s company should not only continue to advance traditional and strong technologies (3 main sectors), but also has a strategy to enter the climate change market with great potential. For example and in particular, both countries are interested in the renewable energy sector where greenhouse gas reduction costs are lower than strategies for changing macro-economic policies and industrial structures to reduce greenhouse gases.
   Secondly, the institutional change such as introduction of the pollutant pay principle in environmental policy has led Brazil and Mexico to gradually shift the direction of policy and industry and future by introducing and allowing active participation of the market from private sectors, rather than previous government-centered ways of solving environmental problems.
   However, the problem is that these countries have a little experience in solving environmental problems or climate change problems by using market mechanisms. As a result, investments in the environmental industry include public-private cooperation, encouraging participation of foreign companies, and various environmental investment incentive programs will increase. In addition, the use of green bonds, the use of green climate funds, the emergence of various environmental products in the market, and the development of supply and consumption systems will become important markets in near future.
   Thirdly, the hallmarks of entering the Brazilian and Mexican markets are large companies. In addition to the entry of manufacturing products in the scale of automobiles, electronics, and telecommunications, the joint entry of SMEs with environmental technology in Korea should be carried out jointly. For example, It is necessary for SMEs to joint entry with large Korean companies related with environmental technologies, such as air monitoring, desalination, wastewater treatment, energy efficiency, smart cities and transportation systems, etc in the field of national infrastructure projects with current Brazilian Bousonaru government.
   Fourthly, waste energization has the advantage for mitigating environmental problems caused by waste by itself. In addition, waste is generated continuously in the urban city and making it more economical in terms of supply than other energy sources. To stop waste growth and the reducing environmental problems, Brazil and Mexico are currently planning to expand waste energy facilities in more than a certain city. Korea has considerable technology for waste energization and overcome a few disadvantages: it is necessary to secure funding stability and establish a channel between the government and the government. It is also necessary to seek financial support from multilateral development banks and international organizations.
   Finally, as smart cities are recognized as an effective response to climate change and urban problems, smart cities are expected to expand significantly in Brazil and Mexico. Korea has experience in urban development and excellent ICT technology, and has accumulated new city development knowledge such as U-City (Ubiquitous City) know-how. In addition, ICT infrastructure such as high-speed information communication network and operation of city integrated operation center is world-class level and environmental technologies such as transportation and water management are excellent. However, actual overseas business are some times limited due to the lacks of support for overseas projects. In order to approach smart city-related projects in Brazil and Mexico, thus it is necessary to reinforce the competitiveness of ordering by supplementing the financial system related to the smart city in Korea, based on providing order information by country and integrating solutions firstly.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구배경과 목적
2. 선행연구의 검토
3. 연구범위와 구성

제2장 EU의 특혜관세제도 현황
1. EU의 일반특혜관세제도(GSP) 도입 현황
2. EU와 아프리카 국가 간 경제동반자협정(EPA) 현황
3. EU-아프리카 교역 현황과 특혜관세제도 수혜 현황
4. 권역별 EPA 협정 구조 및 조문 비교

제3장 EU와 미국의 대아프리카 특혜관세제도 비교
1. 제도의 배경과 현황
2. 교역효과 비교 분석

제4장 결론: 한국의 對아프리카 특혜관세제도 도입에 대한 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   The European Union (EU) practices various types of preferential trade schemes to promote the economic growth of developing countries through trade. The EU classifies developing countries into three groups by their income level, economic and social status and applies the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), which is a non-reciprocal preferential trade scheme to reduce or exempt tariffs on goods exported to the EU or remove quotas. The EU also signs Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with developing countries in the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) regions, which have long historical relationships with Europe, to open European markets to partner countries and support their trade capacity building. Major advanced economies, including the EU, implement a wide range of preferential trade schemes targeting Africa, which has the positive effect of strengthening Africa's trade capacity, supplying cheaper goods to their consumers, and supporting their entrepreneurs' investment in Africa.
   In the midst of the recent changes we are seeing in the African trade environment, trade policies like preferential tariff schemes can be used in Korea’s long-term trade strategy with Africa. On May 30, 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), entered into force with a range of coverage extending across the entire African continent, and starting from July 2020 most tariffs on goods trade within the African market with a 1.2 billion population will be eliminated. Reacting to these changes, emerging countries such as Russia, China, India, and Turkey, as well as advanced countries implementing preferential trade schemes such as the GSP, are rapidly expanding their trade and investment in Africa. As a result of the changes in the trade environment surrounding Africa, major countries in the world are evaluating and adjusting their Africa strategy, while Korea still lacks any economic cooperation strategies or policies in Africa except for development cooperation policies. Korea’s bilateral trade-promoting policies widely used so far, such as free trade agreements (FTA), may not be appropriate for the circumstances in Africa, where regional economic communities are formed in each part of the continent, and import regulations are widespread for the economic development of African countries. Thus, Korea needs a long-term trade strategy with Africa that can enhance Korea’s interests in a manner that also suits the circumstances and demands of the continent.
   In this context, this study aims to investigate the current state of preferential trade schemes of the EU to establish Korea's trade strategy for Africa. While the United States has implemented the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) as its preferential tariff scheme for African countries, the EU sets up different economic cooperation strategies by grouping African countries and regions according to their economic development and income level. In particular, the EU’s EPA policy to asymmetrically and gradually open markets of middle-income countries in Africa might be a good model policy for Korea.
   Chapter 2 examines the EU’s non-reciprocal and bilateral preferential tariff schemes and agreements and its trade relations with African countries. The EU divides developing countries into three groups and applies different preferential tariffs. The standard GSP reduces tariffs for exports of about 66% of products from developing countries to the EU market. Among countries eligible for standard GSP, the ones that meet the vulnerability and sustainable development standards can apply for GSP+, the framework that fully exempts tariffs for GSP-applicable products. Furthermore, least developed countries can enjoy full access to EU market for all of their export products except armament, according to the Everything But Arms (EBA) policy.
   The EU is also promoting EPAs as bilateral trade agreements with regional economic communities in the ACP region, including Africa. The EU already has implemented EPAs with some countries in Southern Africa (SADC), West Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa, and Central African regions, and has concluded EPA negotiations with East Africa. Under the EPA, the EU market is open immediately for most items to partner countries, while the markets of the partner countries in Africa will open later gradually and partially, as an asymmetric market opening principle. In particular, high-income countries, which are ineligible for EBA privileges, can also benefit from trade privileges under these EPAs for their EU exports. For instance, South Africa enjoys significant tariff reductions on its agricultural and fishery exports through the EU-SADC EPA. In addition to trade, EPAs strengthen and monitor the economic policy capacity of African countries, in terms of labor, environment, investment, and competition policies, to create a business environment where European entrepreneurs prefer investing in. Several EPA signing African countries, including Cote d’Ivoire, are actively attracting investment from EU entrepreneurs through EPAs. However, some African countries, including Nigeria, are postponing their ratification of the EPA, with the result that it is only in force on a provisional basis within the countries that have ratified it. All EPAs that the EU has entered into or negotiated with African countries include development cooperation and economic development in Africa. However, most of Africa’s exports to the EU are still raw materials such as petroleum and agricultural products. Aid for Trade (AfT) and efforts to attract the investment of EU companies in Africa still remain important agendas.
   Chapter 3 compares and analyzes the US and the EU preferential tariff schemes implemented for Africa. Both have a common framework based on their GSP and require compliance with international norms such as labor rights and human rights. In addition to the application of preferential tariffs, both implement special programs to strengthen trade capacities and technical support for African countries. However, while the AGOA strictly enforces standards concerning US national interests , such as protection of US investment in Africa and the export environment supporting American firms, EU’s policies apply flexible standards for more comprehensive terms. Whereas the AGOA is provided for in the form of US domestic law in a scheme where the US government decides on target countries, EU policies determine beneficiary countries according to international standards, with the exception of the GSP+.
   There are significant differences between preferential tariff schemes of the US and the EU in terms of trade effects. An empirical study using imports data of the EU and the US from Sub-Saharan Africa, from the period of 2000 to 2015, indicates that the US AGOA had an estimated trade effect of approximately 31.0% on apparel products, while the estimated effect on non-apparel products was only about 2.4%. The trade effect of all the EU preferential tariff schemes including GSP and EPA was estimated at about 13.8%. Similar to the previous studies, the trade effect of AGOA is concentrated on apparel items. Since the share of non-apparel items is larger in terms of the number of items and the volume of trade, the trade effect of the EU policies is higher when comparing the trade effect of the US and EU preferential tariff schemes for Africa.
   Chapter 4 summarizes the results of the entire study and produces policy recommendations, including the possibility of Korea's preferential tariff schemes for Africa and how to utilize them. Korea has pursued several bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) since the late 1990s. More recently, Korea’s New Southern Policy and New Northern Policy also incorporate FTAs and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) with regional partner countries. Korea explored FTAs with South Africa and Egypt in the past, but failed to realize any significant progress. Considering Korea is neither geographically close to Africa nor has a large market like the EU, using the non-reciprocal preferential tariff scheme as the only strategy for increasing trade with Africa would merely have limited effects. Furthermore, even if Korea introduces non-reciprocal preferential tariff policies such as the GSP, upper-middle income countries in Africa, who have the most potential for economic cooperation with Korea, are less likely to obtain beneficiary status under such a scheme.
   For this reason, it is necessary to consider a new and alternative trade agreement framework that fully reflects the needs of Korea as well as partner countries and regions, partner countries’ income and other important characteristics of bilateral economic cooperation. In this respect, the EU's strategy of promoting EPAs with major reExecutive gional economic communities and differentiating GSPs by income level of beneficiary countries can be considered as a good model for Korea. Given that the demand for local investment and technology transfer to Africa is as significant as the need to expand bilateral trade with African countries, alternative bilateral trade agreements similar to an EPA should be developed to meet the needs and environments of different African countries and regional communities. In order to expand trade and investment between Korea and Africa, it is necessary to strengthen the trade capacity of Africa and increase access to both markets. This is also the objective of Aid for Trade, which has recently been highlighted in the area of development cooperation. Korea continues to increase its amount of aid for trade every year, but the sector remains separated from the trade strategy of Korea. It will be essential for Korea to establish a Korea-African economic cooperation strategy and implementation system that can operate beyond trade policies and development cooperation policies if Korea is to systematize aid for trade and expand trade and investment between Korea and Africa.
   Finally, we could consider integrating the various high-level Korea-African policy forums currently hosted by different Korean ministries and upgrading these to the highest level. Not only the US and the EU but also China and Japan, operate regular top-level forums with African countries to expand economic cooperation with Africa. The theme of the forums has also changed from development cooperation agenda to trade and investment agenda. In line with the emerging trend of regional centrality led by the African Union (AU), Korea’s trade agenda should place more emphasis on strengthening its consultative bodies with the AU to overcome the limitations of economic cooperation with fragmented regional economic communities. Holding these Korea-AU councils on a regular basis and expanding them appear to be a promising direction when considering recent changes in the trade environment in Africa.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 중국외교의 부상과 네트워크
2. 국제정치의 권력 변환과 네트워크 파워
3. 현대 중국외교의 권력에 관한 선행연구
4. 연구의 목적 및 의의
5. 본 연구의 구성

제2장 네트워크로 보는 국제정치
1. 21세기 국제정치의 변화와 네트워크 이론
2. 네트워크 권력의 개념과 분석방법

제3장 중국의 경제성장과 네트워크 파워
1. 글로벌 경제협력 네트워크
2. 미ㆍ중 통상마찰과 네트워크 경쟁
3. 중국식 경제성장모델과 협력기제

제4장 전통안보와 중국의 네트워크 파워
1. 북핵 네트워크와 중국의 역할
2. 중국과 타이완의 외교 네트워크 경쟁
3. 국제질서의 변화와 신형국제관계

제5장 비전통안보와 중국의 네트워크 파워
1. 미ㆍ중 표준경쟁
2. 일대일로와 글로벌 에너지 네트워크
3. 사이버에서의 안보 네트워크

제6장 요약 및 시사점
1. 요약
2. 시사점

참고문헌
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 필요성 및 목적
2. 연구 방법 및 차별성

제2장 세계 에너지 패러다임의 변화
1. 세계 에너지 지형의 변화
2. 세계 에너지와 기후변화 : 깨끗한 에너지와 기후변화 위기대응
3. 세계 에너지 패러다임의 변화 : 에너지 전환
4. 에너지 개발협력과 에너지신산업

제3장 라틴아메리카 에너지 패러다임의 변화
1. 라틴아메리카 에너지 수급 현황
2. 라틴아메리카의 에너지 정세 변화
3. 라틴아메리카 에너지와 기후변화
4. 라틴아메리카 에너지 전환 전망
5. 라틴아메리카 에너지신산업 투자 동향

제4장 안데스 4개국 에너지·기후변화정책과 진출 여건
제1절 콜롬비아
제2절 에콰도르
제3절 볼리비아
제4절 페루
제5절 안데스 4개국 비교분석

제5장 한국·안데스 4개국 에너지·기후변화 협력 방안
1. 에너지·기후변화 분야 민간투자와 개발협력 현황
2. 우리나라의 안데스 4개국 민간투자와 개발협력 현황
3. 한국-안데스 4개국 에너지·기후변화 분야 협력방안

제6장 결론

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   It’s time for a paradigm shift in the global energy sector from the “energy security” to the “energy transition”. While energy platform in the past was largely defined by affordable and sustainable energy supplies, recent energy system is marked by the energy transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear power to clean and safe energy resources like wind and solar. Climate change comes to the forefront in explaining this paradigm shift. To confront the imminent challenges posed by climate change, the global community has come up with meaningful agreements for collective actions and it has strengthened the efforts for greenhouse gas mitigation and climate change adaptation. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has not been an exception in such a paradigm shift in the energy sector prompted by climate change. As a crucial member of a global community, LAC countries have taken a greater part in the collective actions to enhance access to stable energy supplies by accelerating energy transition. Accordingly, this study provides a comprehensive review of energy and climate change policies of LAC countries and the ongoing private investment and international development cooperation efforts in the renewable energy sector in LAC. Based on case studies on four Andean States which include Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru, we propose policy implications to promote development cooperations between South Korea and LAC countries with a particular focus on the four Andean States.
   This study consists of five chapters. Chapter 2 examines a paradigm shift in the world energy sector. Global demand for energy has increased constantly. Global primary energy consumption increased 2.5 times in 45 years from 5,500 Mtoe in 1971 to 13,700 Mtoe in 2016, and it is projected to grow by 1.0 percent annually to reach 17,600 Mtoe in 2040. Fossil fuels continue to account for the largest share of energy consumption. However, the share of fossil fuels is projected to fall from 81.1% in 2016 to 74.6% in 2040 while the share of renewable energy is forecasted to rise to 19.6% from 13.9% over the same period. In particular, the share of non-conventional renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, is expected to increase from 1.6% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2040 with an average annual growth rate of 7.0%.
   Meanwhile, the shale gas revolution in the United States is on the verge of transforming the world of energy market. In consequence of the U.S. shale revolution, gas is projected to occupy the position of the world's major energy sources in the 21st century. If the U.S. gas boom spreads to other countries, the age of fossil fuels may last longer than expected. In this scenario, concerns are raised about a negative impact of the shale revolution on global warming given that it may trigger increase in fossil fuel consumption and delay in transition to renewable energy.
   Nonetheless, energy transition is imperative for humankind to cope with the threat of nearby depletion of fossil fuels and climate change. The three key dimensions of energy transition are de-carbonation, energy efficiency, and electrification. For successful global energy transition, changes in energy policy need to be combined both with development of new energy sources and with innovation in climate technologies to foster energy efficiency.
   As part of that, the global community adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement in 2015 and it has strengthened its efforts to face the climate crisis. To cope with the climate crisis, it is a mandate for the global community to provide technological and financial support to developing countries. In this respect, meaningful achievements have been made in the international community to collectively cope with climate crisis. Also, private sector is another promising actor in addressing climate change through its contribution to ICT convergence in the energy sector.
   Chapter 3 analyzed the recent trends of energy sector, climate change, prospected energy transition, and investment in renewable energy sector in LAC. In accordance with the global trend, fossil fuels comprise the greatest share of LAC energy consumption, reaching at 69% (oil accounting for 37%, natural gas 22%, coal 4%, respectively). Even so, LAC countries are less dependent on fossil fuels compared with the world average of 81.1%. Moreover, the share of renewable energy in LAC is 30%, which is far above the world average of 13.9%. When it comes to the primary energy consumption, LAC consumed 666 Mtoe, accounting for 4.84% of the global total. Energy demand in LAC is projected to grow 1.4% annually to reach 936 Mtoe by 2040.
   The 20 major LAC countries emit approximately 1.83 billion tons of carbon dioxide, accounting for about 5.07% of the global CO2 emissions (35.1 billion tons). Among LAC countries, only four countries emit above 0.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, which include Mexico (0.48 billion tons), Brazil (0.53 billion tons), Argentina (0.2 billion tons), and Venezuela (0.18 billion tons). CO2 emissions per capita in LAC was reported at 3.1 tons. If we suppose that the per capita CO2 emissions should be lowered to less than 3 tones to cope with climate crisis, LAC is already close to that level.
   Besides, investment in renewable energy sector such as solar and wind has surged worldwide. In Latin America, investment in renewable energy (except for large hydro plants) from 2010 to 2015 exceeded USD 80 billion. Accordingly, the capacity of renewable energy in LAC jumped from 10 GW in 2006 to 36 GW in 2015. Also, LAC countries are stepping up their efforts for smart grids technology deployment. Encompassing many isolated areas beyond the interconnected system, LAC countries have shown a high demand for micro-grids and energy storage devices. In addition, relatively high power dissipation of the region has called for a higher energy efficiency.
   Chapter 4 conducts case studies on the four Andean States which include Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru. We selected the four countries for a county-level analysis in consideration of their high potential for cooperation with South Korea in the renewable energy sector. They have been the major partner countries in the development cooperation with South Korea. Accelerating their efforts for the development of renewable energy, the four Andean States also provide a sound opportunity for private investment in the renewable energy industry.
   As the first case country, Colombia is a leading energy power in Latin America. Colombia is a net exporter of energy, consuming only about a quarter of its primary energy production domestically and exporting the remaining three-quarters, due to its abundance of fossil energy, such as coal, oil and natural gas, and renewable energy such as hydro power and biomass.
   To counter the risk of depleting fossil fuels and the climate crisis, the Colombian government has shifted its priority in energy policy to energy transition. It has made meaningful efforts to promote non-traditional renewable energy such as solar and wind power, and it has upheld innovations in energy industry through the deployment of ICT technologies such as smart grids. Despite these endeavors, Colombia has not yet achieved a sufficient progress in energy transition. Investment in non-traditional renewable energy such as solar and wind power still stays at the initial stage of implementation, while innovations in energy industries such as the introduction of smart grids are still at the stage of planning.
   Recently, the Colombian government has actively implemented the energy transition policy in order to reduce 20-30% of greenhouse gas emissions, an objective that it proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). Prompted by this policy change, Colombia’s renewable energy sector has experienced a rapid growth in private investment. Additionally, international assistance for mitigation and adaptation to fight climate change in Colombia continues to grow. Accordingly, Colombia is expected to offer greater opportunities to South Korea for private investment and development cooperations in the energy and climate change sectors.
   Secondly, Ecuador is one of the leading oil-producing countries in LAC. It has been the only members of OPEC along with Venezuela in the region. Ecuador is a net exporter of energy, exporting 60% of the primary energy production. Oil accounts for 87% of the primary energy production in Ecuador. The energy system of Ecuador is structured to be dependent on oil. Nonetheless, since the adoption of a new constitution in 2008, which is the first in the world to recognize the rights for nature, the Ecuador’s government has accelerated the efforts to transform its energy structure to be environmentally sound. More tangible changes have been made in the arena of electric energy. Driven by the renewable energy policies oriented toward hydro power, the capacity of renewable energy surpassed the capacity of fossil fuels for the first time since 2016. As of 2019, renewable energy accounts for more than 75% of the total electricity generated in Ecuador.
   The greenhouse gas emissions of Ecuador stay at a modified level when compared with the global average. Still, Ecuador’s government has joined the collective endeavors to confront climate crisis by proposing to reduce a maximum 45.8% of greenhouse gas emission in its INDC. To meet the challenge, Ecuador’s government has given policy priority to the electrification. To be specific, it has focused on supplying electric vehicles to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, which generates the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions. The electrification of the Ecuadorian economy is expected to accelerate its pace as the government passed new Energy Efficiency Law that mandates all new city and provincial buses to be electric beginning in 2025.
   Thirdly, Bolivia is a major producer of natural gas in LAC. Natural gas accounts for 81% of the primary energy production in Bolivia and 70% of natural gas produced in the country is exported. Governing for almost 14 years from 2006 to 2019, Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia tightened state control over natural resources. Driven by such policy measures as well as the increased market price of natural gas, Bolivia has accomplished an annual average of 4% economic growth over the las decade. Another remarkable achievement has been the significant improvement in the energy provision to the rural and remote zones.
   Despite these achievements, Bolivia still remains to be the poorest country in terms of its income per capita in South America. As such, the priority in her energy policy is oriented towards energy security for affordable and stable energy supplies. Rather than emphasizing energy transition to cope with climate crisis, a greater weight is given to ensure economic and social development by utilizing energy resources such as natural gas and lithium. Still, Bolivia has made meaningful progresses in energy transition prompted by recent renewable energy policies that are designed to expand the supply of electricity to remote and rural areas by fostering the development of renewable energies such as hydro, solar, and wind power.
   Tightened state control over energy resources in combination with a relatively high poverty rate have hindered active foreign investment in the Bolivian energy industries. On the other hand, the global community including South Korea has continued to provide substantial development assistance to foster energy transition and climate change adaptation in Bolivia.
   Fourthly, Peru is another leading exporter of natural gas in LAC. Fossil fuels including natural gas account for 80% of primary energy production in Peru. In addition to fossil fuels, Peru enjoys rich renewable energy resources such as hydro, solar, and wind power. Hydropower accounts for 50% of the nation’s electricity generation. In comparison with hydropower, the contribution of another renewable energy such as solar and wind remains relatively low, accounting for only 3.3% of the total electricity generation.
   To ensure economic growth by utilizing rich natural gas, the Peruvian government has actively promoted the development of natural gas. It also has worked to increase the share of gas in the domestic energy consumption. Hence, a priority has been given to natural gas than to renewable energy such as solar and wind power. Likewise, the recent renewable energy projects have replaced only a slight proportion of traditional fossil fuels. Nevertheless, we need to note that the Peruvian government has achieved significant progresses in its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emission and to improve its adaptation to climate change. The international community has also been actively engaged in cooperating with Peru to foster greenhouse gas mitigation and climate change adaptations of the country. As well, Peru seems to be a promising market for the investors in climate-smart technology.
   In the last section of chapter 4, we conducted a comparative analysis of the four Andean countries. All these countries have abundant energy resources. Among them, Colombia boasts of the largest scale in terms of the production, export, and consumption of energy, followed by Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia. In accordance with the global paradigm shift to energy transition, meaningful transformations are taking place in the energy policies of the four Andean countries. All these countries have changed their energy policies in a way that emphasizes energy transition, particularly the diversification of energy mix and the improvement of energy efficiency through the development of renewable energy such as hydro, solar, wind and biomass power.
   The four Andean countries have actively participated in the collective endeavors at the global level to counter climate change, which among others include the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. Pursuant to the Paris Agreement, all the four countries submitted their INDC in 2015. In addition, they have set goals for renewable energy development and have laid legal and institutional foundations to boost private investment in the renewable energy sector. Furthermore, the international community has offered a substantial assistance to foster climate change adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation in these countries.
   In the last chapter, we propose policy implications to facilitate the cooperation between South Korea and the individual four Andean countries in energy and climate change sectors. To be specific, we suggest strategies to strengthen cooperations in the following three subjects of energy innovation: financial assistance, the establishment of cooperative framework, and smart grids.

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 필요성 및 목적
2. 선행연구
3. 연구의 구성과 차별성

제2장 체제전환국의 FDI 유입 현황 및 투자 환경 분석
1. 체제전환국의 FDI 유입 현황 분석
2. 체제전환국의 투자 환경 분석(Doing Business Index)
3. 소결

제3장 체제전환국에 대한 FDI 유입 결정요인
1. 분석자료 및 실증분석 모형
2. 체제전환국의 FDI 유입 결정요인
3. 결론 및 북한에 대한 함의

제4장 북한의 FDI 유치를 위한 정책적 시사점과 우리 정부의 과제
1. 체제전환국 FDI 유치 성공요인으로 본 북한 당국의 과제
2. 우리 정부의 정책 방향과 과제

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   This study discusses North Korea’s foreign investment policy and tasks ahead of its government to revitalize the economy, based on the premise that nuclear negotiations between North Korea and the US proceed smoothly. First of all, in order to derive policy tasks, we compared and analyzed the achievements and policies of transition countries in Asia and Eastern Europe to attract FDI, also analyzing the determinants of FDI inflows, after which we present policy tasks for North Korean authorities. As South Korea may very well become the largest investor in North Korea, our study also discusses tasks for the Korean government to pursue in order for Korean companies to successfully invest in North Korea.
   Based on data provided by the Doing Business project at the World Bank, this study investigates changes in the investment environment of each transition economy and compares their investment environment, institutions, and correlations with FDI inflows. During our quantitative analysis of determinants of FDI inflows in transition economies, we came upon many cases where statistics were unstable or difficult to secure, so this study limits target group to 24 countries. For FDI inflow data, we used OECD statistics and conducted our analysis through system GMM estimation, a method in wide use recently. In addition to the determinants of FDI inflows for all transition economies, we also performed a separate analysis of the Visegrad Group (the “V4”) and the Baltic states, which are considered to be successful in attracting FDI, classified into one group.
   In addition, we analyzed the income categories by classifying them as transition economies with per capita GDP less than US$ 2,000 and those above. In the case of transition economies, we postulated that accession to the WTO or EU would have a great effect on FDI inflows for these nations. Based on this premise, we measured FDI inflows by using dummy variables based on when the nation joined the WTO or EU. In the case of the V4 and the Baltic states, the initial conditions were the externally determined independent variables. The most important success factors for investment in the early stages of the transition were the pace of reform and level of openness. This is because the performance of investment inducement policy depends on how wide open the economy has been rendered and reformed rapidly to be incorporated into the world economy.
   In the case of China and Vietnam, the improvement of the business environment was also an important factor for the inflow of FDI. The Baltic states, Macedonia and Georgia all have limited domestic markets, which has led to these countries attracting investment by carrying out drastic improvements in their business environments, thus positioning themselves as a base for advancing into adjacent and larger markets. Among the evaluation factors, efforts to improve the environment in the trade sector were prioritized. In other words, efforts were made to attract investment in sales bases in neighboring large markets to the country by radically improving procedures and reducing the time and costs required in the import and export process. In the regional characteristics of the transition country’s business conditions, the EU member states as well as the transition countries adjacent to the EU generally receive better evaluations in the trade sector than any other assessment factor.
   There are many instances of transition economies not included among the top 20 nations on the “Ease of Doing Business” ranking announced by the World Bank benefiting from a larger market or abundant resources in adjacent regions. This includes Poland in the Middle East and Europe, Russia and Ukraine in the CIS adjacent to the EU, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, and China in East Asia. Of course, reform and opening and improvements in the business environment were made, but the size of the market and the abundance of abundant resources played a significant role in FDI inflow compared to neighboring competitors. Kazakhstan has actively attracted FDI through improving its business environment, developing its own resources and utilizing this as the foundation for economic development. Even in Russia, which is not a rapidly transitioning nation, the rich potential for development of abundant resources attracted large amounts of FDI. China, now a “G2” economy, also attracted a huge amount of FDI despite carrying out reform in a gradual manner and opening its market only partially.
   In addition, improving relations with the Western world, such as the US and the EU, is one of the major success factors for transition countries to attract investment. There are many cases in the leading group of transition economies where joining the EU served as a decisive factor to increase FDI inflow, while efforts to strengthen their relationships with the EU added a similar impetus for the late stage group. Serbia, once a leading figure in the former Yugoslavia federation, continued to clash with the UN due to the Baltic Wars and its own civil wars, but is recently seeing a dramatic improvement in its FDI inflow following efforts to join the EU and improve relations with the West. Vietnam’s approval of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with the US in December 2006 served as a new opportunity to increase its inflow of FDI.
   Based on the quantitative analysis on the determinants of FDI inflows by transition countries, and an analysis of the results of investment and reform in the transition countries, 11 policy implications were drawn for North Korea, as follows: ① efforts to secure support in advance from international financial institutions ② efforts to normalize trade relations with the US ③ efforts to expand market size and location ④ maximum leveraging of geographical proximity with other countries ⑤ attraction of foreign capital through competition-promoting policies ⑥ expansion of trade openness ⑦ expansion of the private sector ⑧ efforts to foster the manufacturing industry ⑨ stable provision of public services and macroeconomic stability ⑩ incorporation into the international trade order through regional trade agreements and membership in the WTO, and ⑪ efforts to improve elements evaluated on the Doing Business index will be necessary.
   Finally, we suggest for the South Korean government to consider the following policy tasks: ① ease US export control regulations (EAR) for Korean companies to enter North Korea ② resolve rules of origin issues to secure export markets for Korean companies, and ③ transfer experiences of SEZs to attract FDI into North Korea.
 

    This study identified trends and possibilities in the North Korean economy and seeks new policy alternatives for inter-Korean economic cooperation. First, it analyzed the achievements of new economic policies announced since Kim Jung-un took leadership and the effects these are having within the North Korean economy. In addition, it evaluated the current level of North Korea’s reform and opening up policy based on the experience of various other transition economies.   

   Chapter 2 examined recent changes in North Korean economic policies and institutions. Chairman Kim has worked to improve the nation’s “resource allocation mechanism” and “priority of resource allocation.” First of all, the “economic management system in our style” strategy was applied to reform the resource allocation mechanism. Second, the government shifted from its previous policy of parallel development of the economy with nuclear weapons to a focus on socialist economic construction to reform resource allocation priorities, reducing the share placed on heavy industries. The government appears to have reduced its investment in the military sector and increased investment in the private sector instead. Third, a total of 27 special economic zones have been designated for external open measures to promote drastic foreign investment. However, these measures have had almost no effect due to economic sanctions. Forth, the government has strongly promoted the import substitution policy, and achieved certain results in the consumer goods and light industrial equipment sectors. This series of measures is thought to be comparable to, or more advanced than, early-stage Chinese reforms, but it is difficult to identify them specifically.

     To overcome these limitations, Chapter 3 attempted to quantitatively analyze how the Kim Jung-un regime’s economic policies affected the North Korean economy. Based on the time series data of North Korea’s imports, this chapter examined four parts of the North Korean economy. First, it analyzed the qualitative and quantitative changes in the characteristics of imports shown under Kim Jung-il and Kim Jung-un leadership. There was no structural change in import between the two periods. Second, coming into Kim Jung-un leadership, North Korea’s imports of intermediate goods significantly decreased while its imports of consumer goods increased significantly, mainly from a decrease in investment by South Korea and China due to sanctions, while at the same time North Korea has increasingly produced intermediate goods by itself. Third, our analysis of technology levels of imported goods in North Korea revealed a remarkable growth of “medium-low technology” and “medium-high technology” items due to the influence of Chairman Kim’s policy to promote the science and technology sectors. The policy, however, has been adversely affected due to various sanctions causing a decline in imports of medium-low and medium-high technology items. Fourth, the results of our analysis of North Korea’s imports of intermediate goods in relation to the distribution of firms in North Korea confirm that the economic concentration in Pyongyang has increased since Kim Jung-un leadership.

   Chapter 4 conducted a case study of transition economies in order to review the economic reform and opening policy pursued by Kim Jong-un, and how it could be implemented in practice. We examine the policies that countries such as Vietnam and Myanmar have implemented over time since their declaration of economic reform and opening, and assessed under what conditions the policies produced results. Through this, the level of economic reform and opening policy recently pursued by North Korea is comparable to those of these countries, and the policy task to achieve results is presented. In light of Vietnam’s case, North Korea seems to be in a position to move toward a “new economic policy” that emulates the “Doimoi Policy” of Vietnam. Considering the case of Myanmar, the relationship between North Korea and the US seems to be in the early stages of normalization. The key is whether a roadmap for normalizing relations between North Korea and the US can be established, as in the case of Vietnam, and whether North Korea can accept US demand for lifting sanctions, as in the case of Myanmar. Our analysis indicates that the successful outcome of these countries’ opening policies depended on whether they could attract foreign capital. This means that in order for North Korea’s economic reform and opening policy to achieve meaningful results, foreign relations must be normalized first.

     Building on these results, Chapter 5 presents the possibility and remaining tasks for economic change in North Korea and the potential cooperation areas to resume and expand inter-Korean economic cooperation under the new inter-Korean economic cooperation conditions. Despite the fact that North Korea’s economy has been showing progress since Kim Jung-un took office, the North Korean economy is undergoing difficulties as the overall economy has transitioned toward a high-cost structure since the sanctions in 2016. Sanctions are limiting the domestic effectiveness of Kim Jung-un’s economic reform policies, and it would be difficult for North Korea’s economy to achieve reform and openness without lifting sanctions and normalizing foreign relations.

     The new inter-Korean economic cooperation should be aimed at supporting North Korea to normalize its foreign relations and enter the international regime. In particular, when resuming inter-Korean economic cooperation, it will be necessary to conclude an inter-Korean CEPA in order to create a stable inter-Korean economic cooperation environment. Second, in order to lower the cost of economic integration between the two Koreas, and to promote rapid growth of the inter-Korean economy, economic cooperation projects should be pursued in consideration of the establishment of the economic value chain between North and South Korea. There are two ways to establish a economic value chain division between the two Koreas: one is where North Korea takes charge of labor-intensive processes while South Korea presents a traditional way of providing technology and capital, and the other is to enter the fourth industrial sector utilizing North Korea’s low levels of regulation and industrial development. Third, it is necessary to guide North Korea to multilateral cooperation by creating and improving the conditions for foreigners to participate in inter-Korean economic cooperation, thus creating a virtuous cycle between inter-Korean economic cooperation and foreign investment. Fourth, if South Korea plays a leading role in donor conferences for international organizations supporting North Korea following its reform and opening up, it will be able to serve as a bridgehead between North Korea and the international community.

  

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경과 목적
2. 연구의 범위
3. 연구의 내용과 차별성

제2장 한국 중소기업의 직접 및 간접 수출 현황: 제조업을 중심으로
1. 직접 수출
2. 간접 수출
3. 산업별 직ㆍ간접 수출 구조
4. 수출 유형별 중소기업의 특성 분석
5. 소결

제3장 FTA가 중소기업의 직접 및 간접 수출에 미치는 영향
1. 한국의 FTA 정책
2. FTA 정책의 직ㆍ간접 수출효과
3. 중소기업의 FTA 활용
4. 소결

제4장 정책금융이 중소기업의 직접 및 간접 수출에 미치는 영향
1. 한국의 중소기업 금융지원정책
2. 정책금융의 직ㆍ간접 수출효과
3. 소결

제5장 결론 및 시사점
1. 주요 결과
2. 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   This study investigates how Korean SMEs’ direct/indirect exports have been changing and how they have been affected by FTAs and financial support policies, with the aim of providing implications for SME internationalization policies. In our study we define direct export as the act of selling products directly to foreign buyers, while indirect export refers to the act of selling products to other domestic individuals or firms that engage in direct export. Direct/indirect forms of export, in general, are easier for SMEs to conduct due to the smaller cost involved when compared against other internationalization modes such as foreign direct investment (FDI). Thus, a major share of all internationalization activities by SMEs is accounted for by direct/indirect exports. Despite this importance, few studies have chosen to examine the direct and indirect exports of SMEs together, mainly because the SMEs’ indirect exports are hard to measure due to data limitation. This study aims to fill the research gap by utilizing newly-developed estimation methodologies and firm-level survey.
   More specifically, this study performs the following detailed research tasks. First, we compare the direct and indirect exports of SMEs across Korean manufacturing industries during the period 2002-2017 and explore the differential characteristics of SMEs according to their main export modes. We find that the share of SMEs in total indirect exports is much larger than that in total direct exports (73.0% vs. 18.8% in 2017) and document differential direct/ indirect export structures across the manufacturing industries. We further highlight that the firm characteristics are heterogeneous depending on whether their main export mode is direct or indirect.
   Second, we analyze the impacts of FTA policies on direct and indirect exports of SMEs by detailed manufacturing industries. We also examine how Korean SMEs have been utilizing FTAs for their exports. The FTA policies have been one of Korea’s main trade policies since 2000s. The main results of our analysis show that FTAs have significantly increased Korean SMEs’ direct exports during the period 2005-2017, albeit by only half the magnitude of the effect realized by FTAs in the direct exports of large enterprises during the same period. The gap in FTA direct export effects between large and small/medium firms tends to be larger in industries which show larger polarization in the distribution of firm sizes. Compared to the FTA direct export effects, however, the effect of FTAs on indirect export are seen to benefit SMEs in a broader set of industries. When considering the direct and indirect export effects of FTAs together, we find that the gap in FTA export effects between large and small/medium firms becomes narrower.
   Third, this study investigates the effect of financial support policies, one of the representative SME support policies in Korea, on direct and indirect exports of SMEs. The main finding is that the financial supports for SMEs by the Korean government significantly increased the SMEs’ direct exports. The magnitude of the direct export effects tends to be larger for firms with larger financial support, lower credit score, less years of operation, etc. We also find that the government financial supports positively affected the SMEs’ indirect effects, although the effects were differential depending on the indirect export type.
   Lastly, we conclude with some policy implications based on the main findings. We make suggestions on what policy goals should be set to better assist SMEs’ entry to direct exports, how to facilitate SMEs that indirectly export to engage in direct exports, and how to improve the existing FTA and financial support policies to more effectively facilitate SMEs’ internationalization.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 내용과 구성

제2장 다국적기업의 투자 철수사례
1. 까르푸(Carrefour)의 한국 철수
2. 한국GM 군산공장 폐쇄
3. 미쉐린(Michelin)의 일본 오타공장 폐쇄
4. GM홀덴(Holden) 호주 철수
5. 소결

제3장 우리나라의 외국인 투자기업 현황
1. 투자자 국적·산업·지역별 분포
2. 철수하는 외국인 투자기업의 특성
3. 소결

제4장 외투기업 활동이 국내기업 고용에 미치는 영향 분석
1. 연구 배경
2. 기존 연구
3. 실증분석
4. 실증분석 결과
5. 소결

제5장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
1. 요약 및 정책적 시사점
2. 다국적기업 철수에 대응하는 정책방향
3. 연구의 한계

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   In May 2018 the permanent shutdown of GM Korea’s Gunsan plant heightened social interest in the management of multinational corporations (MNCs). It is now well understood that the biggest concern of MNCs is profitability and they do not hesitate to withdraw their subsidiaries from anywhere in the world. Due to domestic and foreign changes such as demographic changes and the rise of emerging countries such as China and ASEAN, the global economy will see frequent restructuring of the global value chain through the entry and exit of MNCs in the future. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to establish policy directions in response to the withdrawal of MNCs.
   To this end, this research conducts case studies on the previous withdrawal of MNCs and estimates the effect of MNCs’ actitivies on the domestic firms in Korea. In particular, we study four cases of the withdrawal that has negatively affected the economies of the host countries - ① withdrawal of Carrefour in Korea ② GM’s Gunsan plant closure ③ Michelin’s Otta plant closure in Japan ④ GM Holden’s plant closure in Australia. The MNCs decided to shut down their plants in response to either deterioration in profitability or changes in the corporations’ management strategy. Despite the government’s efforts to prevent the closures of plants, the gap in the bargaining power between the MNCs and the governments of the host countries was also evident. Rather than withdrawing completely, however, MNCs have maintained logistics departments and R&D departments such as design centers in line with the industrial competitiveness of the host countries.
   Meanwhile, job loss is one of the central concerns in all of our case studies. Unlike large corporations and capitalists who can diversify their investments between regions and industries, workers and small business owners are more sensitive to the impact of the MNC withdrawal because they are more subject to the restrictions on movement between regions and industries. In addition, the labor market rigidities implemented for the purpose of supporting workers in normal times can even have a substantial effect on the labor market when MNCs close their plants. If the withdrawing MNCs were able to gradually reduce the level of employment as profitability deteriorated in advance, the closure of plants would not have a steep effect on the labor market.
   As highlighted in Chapter 4, the activities of foreign-invested firms are positively correlated with the employment of domestic firms. In particular, the domestic firms in upstream industries were significantly affected. In light of the recent restructuring of GM Korea and concerns about the production cliff of Renault Samsung Motors, our estimation results highlight the potentially substantial effects of the MNC withdrawal from the comprehensive machinery industry. For example, there could be a negative impact on the employment of domestic small and medium-sized firms in the upstream industries that supply parts to the automobile corporations.
   In the long run, it is important to strengthen industrial competitiveness in response to the entry and exit of MNCs, thereby enhancing the growth engine of our economy. Moreover, our case studies and empirical analysis also suggest the implementation of more aggressive fiscal support and assistance programs for rapid sectoral and employment adjustment through re-education, re- employment, and technology development for workers and mid- and small-sized firms in the related industries and the local communities. Among others, our proposed policy measures are a more comprehensive adjustment assistance programs as in the case of the EU’s European Globalization Adjustment Fund and the purchase of goods through a procurement market to strengthen the regional economy after the withdrawal of MNCs. In addition, the Korean government should strengthen policy measures to make sure that MNCs agree to the terms and conditions imposed on an agreement that must be satisfied to receive FDI incentives and benefits. To do that, the upward legislation of the refund regulation on cash aid to promote foreign investment should be implemented.