러시아ㆍ유라시아

As competition between the United States and its nuclear-armed adversaries intensifies, the risk of future nuclear crises grows. Russia’s dirty bomb signaling in the fall of 2022 is an important reminder about the threat of nuclear escalation in regional conflicts involving U.S. partners or allies. The scare also highlights an enduring feature of nuclear crises: uncertainty about adversary intentions. To prepare for the next nuclear crisis and the uncertainty that it will entail, the United States should develop detailed plans for a wide range of nuclear contingences, including those short of nuclear use. A close examination of Russia’s dirty bomb signaling in October 2022 offers three principles for doing so.