본 연구는 남북한 경제통합이 남북 양 경제에 미치는 파급효과를 규명하기 위해 모형을 구축하고 성장효과를 분석하고자 하였다. 먼저 제1장에서는 본 연구의 배경과 목적, 기존 연구와의 방법론적 차별점을 제시하였다. 남북경제협력사업은 역대 정부마다 새로운 경제성장의 기회로 여겨왔으나 중요성에 반해 경제적 파급효과를 추정한 연구가 거의 없었다. 본 연구는 남북통일과 더불어 남북경협이 남북한 양측에 미치는 경제성장효과를 추정하고 남북 양 경제의 이익을 극대화하는 남북경협 형태를 규명하여 시사점을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 방법론적으로는 솔로우 성장모형을 사용한 점, 다양한 경협사업 및 정책변수를 고려하여 경제성장효과를 추정한 점, 동태 분석을 하여 기간별 성장효과를 확인한 점 등이 기존 선행연구와의 차별점으로 평가된다.
제2장에서는 남북 경제통합을 단기의 남북경협사업과 중장기의 점진적 통일로 구분한 후 이를 정량화할 수 있는 모형을 구축하였으며 경제통합...
The purpose of this study is to construct a model that can analyze growth effects to explain the impact that economic integration between North and South Korea will have on both economies. The first chapter explains the background and purpose of this study and how it differs from previous studies in terms of methodology. While inter-Korean economic cooperation projects have been regarded as new economic growth opportunities by every past administration, only a handful of studies have been conducted to estimate the resulting economic effects. The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic growth effects of inter- Korean economic cooperation on both sides of North and South Korea and to identify implications for inter-Korean economic cooperation to maximize the interests of both economies. Methodologically, these points that the Solow growth model is used, the economic growth effect is estimated by taking into account various economic cooperation projects and policy variables, and the dynamic effect of the period is analyzed are evaluated as a distinction from previous research.
In Chapter 2, the inter-Korean economic integration is divided into short-term inter-Korean economic cooperation projects and mid- to long-term progressive unification, and a model is developed to quantify it and a method to evaluate the growth effect of economic integration is suggested. The basic economic model of inter-Korean economic cooperation assumed the Cobb-Douglas production function in the form of a Solow growth model. The difference between the North and South models is that infrastructure development is separated from capital and constructed as a variable independently, and that North Korea's productivity growth rate changes according to the labor and capital exchanges arising from the process of inter-Korean economic cooperation are internalized by functions in the model.
The gradual unification scenario was composed by reflecting five major issues in the basic model. A declining growth rate due to excessive government debt, increase in the cost of disruption in South Korean society due to the movement of North Koreans to the Southern region during the unification process, increase in the working population due to the reduction of military forces in North Korea, and support provided by the South Korean government for social security costs in North Korea are applied at different stages depending on the stage of gradual unification. On the other hand, the growth effect of the inter-Korean economic integration is calculated by summing up the difference between a scenario where economic integration is pursued and one where it is not.
Chapter 3 examines short-term and long-term economic integration scenarios. First, the seven major economic cooperation projects – the Kumgang Mountains project, Kaesong industrial complex project, light water reactor project, South-North railway and road connection project, Han River estuary joint use project, shipbuilding cooperative development project, and the Dancheon area underground resource development project – were selected for closer examination. Labor, capital investment, and infrastructure development proceed differently depending on economic cooperation, with the Kaesong industrial complex project, South-North railway and road connection projects corresponding to labor-intensive economic cooperation projects, and the light water reactor project and South-North railway and road connection projects, which account for more than 80% of infrastructure development during the capital investment stage, were found to be infrastructure-intensive economic cooperation projects. In terms of business duration, projects such as the Kumgang Mountains project and Kaesong industrial complex project are planned for continuous expansion over 30 years according to the development plan. On the other hand, projects such as the infrastructure-intensive economic cooperation projects will show a great reduction in the business scale once the initial construction stage has been completed.
Meanwhile, the progressive unification scenario was designed as a mid- to long-term scenario conducted in three stages over a total of 30 years. The first stage is assumed to be the simultaneous implementation of the seven major economic cooperation projects, while the 2nd and 3rd stages are assumed as a simultaneous expansion of these projects at a two-fold and three-fold scale, respectively. At the same time, considering the five issues listed above, it is assumed that the growth of South Korea's GDP will be reduced by the increased burden of government debt in the first stage. In the second stage, it is assumed that a decrease in gross domestic product will occur due to the increase of North Korea’s government debt, the increase in the North Korean working population due to the decline of its army, and the North Korean regional wage subsidies. In the last third stage, it is assumed that all five factors are applied, including the cost of disorder in South Korean society due to the migration of North Koreans to the South Korean region, and the cost of welfare expenses in the North.
Chapter 4 measures the economic growth effects of short- and long-term economic integration scenarios. According to the results of short-term scenario analyses, economic cooperation projects with the highest growth potential for South Korea were the Kaesong industrial complex project (159.2 trillion won), Kumgang Mountains project (4.12 trillion won) and the Dancheon area underground resource development project (4.08 trillion won). In the case of North Korea, the South-North railway and road connection projects (92.6 trillion won), Kaesong industrial complex project (51.3 trillion won), and Dancheon area underground resource development project (34.3 trillion won) showed the highest growth potential. The combined effect of growth for the two Koreas came in the following order: the Kaesong industrial complex project (210.6 trillion won), North-South railway and road connection project (94.2 trillion won), and the Dancheon area underground resource development project (38.5 trillion won). In sum, in South Korea, labor-intensive businesses have a large economic growth effect, and North Korea's economic growth effect is significantly influenced by productivity growth.
According to the results of mid- and long-term scenarios, South Korea will gain 346.6 trillion won (annual average 14.2 trillion won) in growth effects, North Korea 416.9 trillion won (annual average 27.6 trillion won), and North and South Korea will gain a collective total of 763.5 trillion won (annual average 41.7 trillion won) in growth effects. Compared with a scenario where economic integration is not implemented, the gross production gap between North and South Korea decreased from 51.0 times to 19.8 times and the productivity gap decreased from 11.1 to 7.4 times by the year 2047. Meanwhile, if the effects caused by the five issues are examined separately, the effects in South Korea are not significant, while the North Korean case shows that the total production of North Korea increased by more than 50 trillion won, from 146.6 trillion won to 196.6 trillion won.
In Chapter 5, based on the results of the research, the implications, performance and limitations were examined. The first implication for the economic cooperation is that it is necessary to plan the project in a more long-term and comprehensive manner, considering the fact that the economic growth effect varies greatly depending on the business aspects of the economic cooperation between two Koreas. The second implication is that, considering the growth effect of South Korea is relatively low in some economic cooperation projects, it is necessary for North Korea to establish a business plan to utilize the labor force of North Korea. And the last implication is that it will be wise for North Korea to effect a change in the form of its economic cooperation projects by directly participating and obtaining the resulting products of economic cooperation, rather than simply supplying its labor force.
The main results of this study are as follows: first, by constructing the analysis model for economic integration on North and South Korea, the effects of economic integration on North and South Korea were estimated simultaneously, and economic cooperation and unification estimated with the same model; second, the effect of inter-Korean economic cooperation on North Korean productivity was internalized within the model; third, the main variables for evaluation of the North Korean economy were provided; and fourth, through these analyses we propose the economic cooperation projects most likely to maximize the economic growth of the two Koreas.
Meanwhile, further research will be necessary to supplement the data used for the variables in the growth model, to improve the function we use and to provide further evidence, this being an initial study to internalize productivity. Further considerations will have to be made for the foreign economic relations of North Korea, such as trade and foreign direct investment, and incorporated in the model, and further economic cooperation projects must be developed and analyzed in addition to the seven major economic cooperation projects.
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 구성 및 자료
제2장 경제성장효과 평가모형
1. 모형과 통계자료의 신뢰성
3. 경제통합과 모형
가. 단기 경제통합: 남북경협
나. 중장기 경제통합: 점진적 통일
4. 남북 경제통합의 성장효과 추정
제3장 경제통합 시나리오
1. 단기 남북 경제통합 시나리오: 남북경협
가. 7대 경협 선정 및 분석 방법론
나. 경협 사업 경과 및 사업 내역
다. 남북경협 종합
2. 중장기 남북 경제통합 시나리오: 점진적 통일
제4장 경제성장효과 평가
1. 단기 남북 경제통합의 경제성장효과 분석: 남북경협
가. 분석 방법
나. 경제성장효과 분석 결과
다. 경제성장효과 분석 종합
2. 중장기 남북 경제통합의 경제성장효과 분석: 점진적 통일
1. 성과와 한계
2. 시사점 및 정책제언
가. 남북한 경제통합 평가모델 개발에 대한 제언
나. 경협에 대한 제언
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