|제목||Economic Challenges for Korea: Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses|
|저자||Danny Leipziger, Carl J. Dahlman, and Shahid Yusuf|
본 연구의 목적은 앞으로 한국 경제에 심각한 충격을 줄 수 있는 외부 요인과 그 영향을 분석하는 것으로, 글로벌 경제에 내재된 리스크를 반영한 게임체인징(Game-changing) 시나리오 분석 방법을 활용했다. 시나리오 분석은 일어날 가능성은 적지만 발생했을 때 그 결과에 매우 큰 영향을 미치는 사건 즉, 블랙스완(Black Swan)을 대비하는 것이 매우 유용하다는 전제를 두고 있다. 그리고 블랙스완(Black Swan)의 발생은 한국과 같이 외부요인에 비교적 취약한 국가에는 그다지 비현실적인 것이 아니다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구는 중기적으로(2017~2022년) 한국 정부가 직면한 정책 대안을 실질적으로 변화시킬 수 있는 시나리오를 한국과 중국, 중국과 미국, 한국과 미국 관계의 맥락에서 분석하였다.
먼저 중요한 ‘메가트렌드’인 탈세계화(de-globalization), 획기적인 기술혁신(disruptive technologies), 글로벌 ...
This paper aims to examine some plausible external shocks that can significantly affect Korea’s economic future. It does so by analyzing game-changing scenarios that emanate from a candid assessment of the risks inherent in the global economy. It is based on the premise that it is extremely useful to plan for the less likely events, especially if those events are associated with significantly altered outcomes. These “Black Swan” occurrences are not as far-fetched as one may think, particularly for a country as vulnerable as South Korea.
It is for this reason that the report examines scenarios that might materially alter the policy choices facing Korean authorities in the medium term (2017-2022). These scenarios are analyzed in the context of relations between Korea and China, China and the United States and Korea and the United States.
The approach of the Report is to first examine major “mega-trends” of de-globalization, disruptive technologies, and greater global uncertainty, and in this context of “shifting sands” to build three game- changing scenarios that can substantially affect Korea.
There are three scenarios: A Trade War, initially between China and the United States but with global ramifications; a Troubled China, with significantly lower growth and trade implications; and a Global Meltdown, reminiscent of 2008-2009. We believe there are few countries for which this kind of analysis is more germane than for Korea. The Report aims to hasten further deliberation on the topics of risk and resilience in the Korean policy community to increase preparedness for events that could cause significant disruption to the Korean economy in the medium term.
GDI: Research Team and Advisors
Chapter 1. Project Introduction and Purpose
Chapter 2. The Nature of Scenario Analyses and Its Use
Why Scenario Analysis?
The Methodology Underlying Scenario Analysis
Use of Scenario Analysis in This Report
Chapter 3. The Gamut of Economic Risks Facing Korea Today
The Idea of a Risk Profile
Korea’s Risk Profile in Brief
Medium Term Risks Facing the Korean Economy
Chapter 4. Mega-trends Influencing Medium-Term Scenarios
Mega-trend 1: The Trend Towards De-globalization
The global trade slowdown
Corporate retrenchment away from the Global Production Model
Globalization failures magnified by policy myopia
Mega-trend 2: Disruptive Technologies and Impacts
The impact of disruptive technologies on jobs
Impact of disruptive technologies on trade
Impact of disruptive technologies on global value chains
Mega-trend 3: Persistent Global Uncertainty
Post crisis trends that prompt greater uncertainty
Does uncertainty drag down growth?
Uncertainty and the economy
Chapter 5. A Trade War Scenario
A Historical Perspective
Why a U.S. Trade War with China?
Starting a Trade War is Easy, Controlling it Less So
The Impact on Korea
Chapter 6. A Troubled China Scenario
Introduction to the Current Baseline Scenario
The Troubled China Scenario
The Case of a China Slowdown
The Case of a Financial Crisis
The Case of Dramatic Rebalancing
Combined Troubled China scenario and its Implications
Chapter 7. A Global Meltdown Scenario
A Global Meltdown Scenario
The Major Economies
The Trade Story Dominates
Financial Stagnation and Protectionism
Global Inaction Increases Risks
Chapter 8. Risk Assessment and Analysis: Vulnerabilities and Resilience
The Chinese Challenge
Rapid Development of Technological Capability
Competition in Exports
Ambitious innovation plans
Improving Efficiency and Flexibility in the Economy
Overall competitiveness and the institutional and market regime
Labor market efficiency
Financial market development
Social protection systems
Strengthening Innovation Capacity
Innovation capacity indicators
Skills of the labor force
Entrepreneurial skills and entrepreneurial ecosystem
Conclusions on strengthening innovation
Increasing Trade Diversification
The Asian Region and RCEP
Potential for increasing trade with India
Conclusions and Key Recommendations
Improving Efficiency and Flexibility of the Economy
Increasing Trade Diversification
A. The Economic Relationship between China and the U.S.
B. U.S. Trade Policy toward China
C. Implications of Disruptive Technology for Korea
D. The Economic Relationship between Korea and the U.S.
E. Levels of Economic Integration between Korea and China
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