This study examines the observable phenomenon of growing trade intensity among the ASEAN+3 countries over the last twenty years by using a standard gravity approach. While there is a conventional belief that trade intensities within CJK (China, Japan and Korea) and between CJK and ASEAN have increased, we cannot find proper evidence that the relations have intensified over time beyond the gravity factors, considering the change of pattern in the gravity residuals. Moreover, with the exclusion of Hong Kong, the fitted trade flows projected by the gravity equation can explain most of the actual flows within CJK. With respect to the trade relations between CJK and ASEAN, substantial time-serial fluctuations in trade intensity disappear if the two entrepots of Hong Kong and Singapore are excluded. (The rest is omitted.)

Executive Summary

I. Introduction

II. Growing Bilateral Trade Intensity of ASEAN+3
1. Bilateral Trade Intensity
2. The Data
3. Results

III. A Gravity Interpretation of the Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3
1. The Gravity Model
2. The Data
3. Empirical Analysis

IV. Concluding Remarks

References

Appendix