The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) held a Visiting Scholar Seminar with Dr. Morad Bali from the Centre for Studies on International Security and European Cooperation (CESICE), Grenoble Alpes University, France. The event took place on November 27, 2024, at the KIEP conference room. Dr. Bali delivered a presentation titled “Navigating Sanctions Spillovers: South Korea’s Trade Dynamics with the EAEU and China.”

Dr. Bali explored the direct impacts of European Union (EU) economic sanctions on Russia, particularly how these sanctions influenced South Korea’s trade dynamics with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China. He introduced his unique econometric model, the Time-Varying Sanction Indices, and presented an analysis of changes in South Korea’s exports before and after the imposition of sanctions in 2022.

According to his findings, South Korea’s monthly average exports to EAEU member states such as Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan increased by 46.4%, 2.2%, 90.5%, and 14.3%, respectively, after February 2022. Conversely, South Korea’s exports to China and Russia decreased by 6.8% and 45.6%, respectively, during the same period.

Dr. Bali interpreted these trends as indicative of the economic sanctions' effects on trade dynamics, particularly noting the decline in South Korea’s exports to Russia and China and the rise in exports to Belarus. However, as for South Korea’s increased exports to Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, he highlighted that there is no significant causality in the current analysis, pointing out the need for further research to determine the direct causal impact of sanctions.

The seminar featured active discussions among KIEP experts, including Minhyeon Jeong, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Team; Dongyeon Jeong and Kyungmin Kim, researchers at the Russia and Eurasia Team; and Namseok Kim, Head of the Southeast Asia and Oceania Team.

- Topic: Navigating Sanctions Spillovers: South Korea’s Trade Dynamics with the EAEU and China

- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 27, 2024, 10:30–11:30

- Venue: KIEP conference room (4F), Sejong

- Presenter: Dr. Morad Bali, Centre for Studies on International Security and European Cooperation (CESICE), Grenoble Alpes University, France

- Host: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)

- Contact: Da Woon Lee, Researcher, Africa, Middle East, and Latin America Team (dawnlee@kiep.go.kr)