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The Changing Global Order and Korea’s New Northern Strategy Economic Relations, Economic Cooperation

Author Joungho Park, Boogyun Kang, Dongyeon Jeong, Kyungmin Kim, Seok Hwan Kim, and Dong-Ho Yeom Series 25-03 Language Korean Date 2025.12.30

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This study’s core objective is to identify the direction and policy tasks for a new Northern Strategy amid the shifting global order. This report focuses its analysis on three fundamental aspects, striving to ensure consistency within its content. First, it comprehensively examines the new external environment and conditions for cooperation between South Korea and Northern countries in the era of global order restructuring in 2025. Second, it comprehensively evaluates the 35 years of Northern Policy implemented since the establishment of diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union in 1990, identifying key achievements, challenges, and future cooperation needs. Third, based on these new demands for cooperation, it analyzes the economic impact of the Northern Strategy. By synthesizing the results of this analysis, it proposes a new direction for the Northern Strategy and a plan for managing neighboring countries.

Chapter 2 provides an in-depth examination of the structural changes in the global strategic environment and the new geopolitics of Eurasia. To deeply identify the key characteristics of the new foreign strategic environment and the conditions for pursuing the Northern Strategy, this study comprehensively analyzed the following: changes in the external environment and the direction of the new international order; alternatives to the post-Cold War system and the US's composite strategy; the rise of Eurasian regionalism and the changing external environment; and new dynamics and future challenges in Eurasian international relations.

Chapter 3 provides a comprehensive assessment of the Northern Policy over the past 35 years. It examines Korea's economic relations with key Northern cooperation partners—Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus—and identifies the growth goals and challenges these countries face amid a rapidly changing international order and uncertainty. This analysis aims to provide meaningful implications for formulating a new Northern Policy.

Chapter 4 examines the economic impact of the new Northern Strategy. To measure the economic spillover effects of cooperation with Northern countries, particularly Russia, we utilized a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the GDP, total consumption, and total investment effects of each simulation of economic cooperation. Because partial equilibrium analysis may not adequately reflect the influence of markets, we examined the entire national economy through general equilibrium analysis. The countries analyzed included Russia, Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), China, and Mongolia. Specific targets and sectors were simulated based on existing research identifying areas with significant economic impact. Specifically, we analyzed the economic impacts of strategic industries such as logistics and power grids, energy and industrial cooperation, and ICT, as well as cultural exchange and tourism cooperation, where demand intersects. Based on this analysis, we aimed to identify areas of strategic cooperation that are expected to generate mutual benefits, including the potential economic spillover effects following the Russia-Ukraine War, such as the easing of sanctions against Russia.

Chapter 5 outlines policy implications of the research and proposes policy measures that take into account the new external environment. The most crucial element in formulating and implementing a new Northern Eurasian policy is the in-depth consideration of macroeconomic and structural factors. In other words, we must first understand the changing direction of the international order and its key characteristics to develop effective response measures. In this context, South Korea needs to consider the new challenges and cooperation needs of the countries of Northern Eurasia and formulate policies centered on strategic priority areas of cooperation.

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