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The Ongoing Energy Transition in Latin America and the Cooperation Strategy with South Korea: the Cases of the Andean Countries industrial policy, energy industry

Author Young Seok Kim, Kisu Kwon, Jung Won Kang, and You Kyoung Kim Series 세계지역전략연구 19-08 Language Korean Date 2019.12.30

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   It’s time for a paradigm shift in the global energy sector from the “energy security” to the “energy transition”. While energy platform in the past was largely defined by affordable and sustainable energy supplies, recent energy system is marked by the energy transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear power to clean and safe energy resources like wind and solar. Climate change comes to the forefront in explaining this paradigm shift. To confront the imminent challenges posed by climate change, the global community has come up with meaningful agreements for collective actions and it has strengthened the efforts for greenhouse gas mitigation and climate change adaptation. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has not been an exception in such a paradigm shift in the energy sector prompted by climate change. As a crucial member of a global community, LAC countries have taken a greater part in the collective actions to enhance access to stable energy supplies by accelerating energy transition. Accordingly, this study provides a comprehensive review of energy and climate change policies of LAC countries and the ongoing private investment and international development cooperation efforts in the renewable energy sector in LAC. Based on case studies on four Andean States which include Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru, we propose policy implications to promote development cooperations between South Korea and LAC countries with a particular focus on the four Andean States.
   This study consists of five chapters. Chapter 2 examines a paradigm shift in the world energy sector. Global demand for energy has increased constantly. Global primary energy consumption increased 2.5 times in 45 years from 5,500 Mtoe in 1971 to 13,700 Mtoe in 2016, and it is projected to grow by 1.0 percent annually to reach 17,600 Mtoe in 2040. Fossil fuels continue to account for the largest share of energy consumption. However, the share of fossil fuels is projected to fall from 81.1% in 2016 to 74.6% in 2040 while the share of renewable energy is forecasted to rise to 19.6% from 13.9% over the same period. In particular, the share of non-conventional renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, is expected to increase from 1.6% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2040 with an average annual growth rate of 7.0%.
   Meanwhile, the shale gas revolution in the United States is on the verge of transforming the world of energy market. In consequence of the U.S. shale revolution, gas is projected to occupy the position of the world's major energy sources in the 21st century. If the U.S. gas boom spreads to other countries, the age of fossil fuels may last longer than expected. In this scenario, concerns are raised about a negative impact of the shale revolution on global warming given that it may trigger increase in fossil fuel consumption and delay in transition to renewable energy.
   Nonetheless, energy transition is imperative for humankind to cope with the threat of nearby depletion of fossil fuels and climate change. The three key dimensions of energy transition are de-carbonation, energy efficiency, and electrification. For successful global energy transition, changes in energy policy need to be combined both with development of new energy sources and with innovation in climate technologies to foster energy efficiency.
   As part of that, the global community adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement in 2015 and it has strengthened its efforts to face the climate crisis. To cope with the climate crisis, it is a mandate for the global community to provide technological and financial support to developing countries. In this respect, meaningful achievements have been made in the international community to collectively cope with climate crisis. Also, private sector is another promising actor in addressing climate change through its contribution to ICT convergence in the energy sector.
   Chapter 3 analyzed the recent trends of energy sector, climate change, prospected energy transition, and investment in renewable energy sector in LAC. In accordance with the global trend, fossil fuels comprise the greatest share of LAC energy consumption, reaching at 69% (oil accounting for 37%, natural gas 22%, coal 4%, respectively). Even so, LAC countries are less dependent on fossil fuels compared with the world average of 81.1%. Moreover, the share of renewable energy in LAC is 30%, which is far above the world average of 13.9%. When it comes to the primary energy consumption, LAC consumed 666 Mtoe, accounting for 4.84% of the global total. Energy demand in LAC is projected to grow 1.4% annually to reach 936 Mtoe by 2040.
   The 20 major LAC countries emit approximately 1.83 billion tons of carbon dioxide, accounting for about 5.07% of the global CO2 emissions (35.1 billion tons). Among LAC countries, only four countries emit above 0.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, which include Mexico (0.48 billion tons), Brazil (0.53 billion tons), Argentina (0.2 billion tons), and Venezuela (0.18 billion tons). CO2 emissions per capita in LAC was reported at 3.1 tons. If we suppose that the per capita CO2 emissions should be lowered to less than 3 tones to cope with climate crisis, LAC is already close to that level.
   Besides, investment in renewable energy sector such as solar and wind has surged worldwide. In Latin America, investment in renewable energy (except for large hydro plants) from 2010 to 2015 exceeded USD 80 billion. Accordingly, the capacity of renewable energy in LAC jumped from 10 GW in 2006 to 36 GW in 2015. Also, LAC countries are stepping up their efforts for smart grids technology deployment. Encompassing many isolated areas beyond the interconnected system, LAC countries have shown a high demand for micro-grids and energy storage devices. In addition, relatively high power dissipation of the region has called for a higher energy efficiency.
   Chapter 4 conducts case studies on the four Andean States which include Colombia, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Peru. We selected the four countries for a county-level analysis in consideration of their high potential for cooperation with South Korea in the renewable energy sector. They have been the major partner countries in the development cooperation with South Korea. Accelerating their efforts for the development of renewable energy, the four Andean States also provide a sound opportunity for private investment in the renewable energy industry.
   As the first case country, Colombia is a leading energy power in Latin America. Colombia is a net exporter of energy, consuming only about a quarter of its primary energy production domestically and exporting the remaining three-quarters, due to its abundance of fossil energy, such as coal, oil and natural gas, and renewable energy such as hydro power and biomass.
   To counter the risk of depleting fossil fuels and the climate crisis, the Colombian government has shifted its priority in energy policy to energy transition. It has made meaningful efforts to promote non-traditional renewable energy such as solar and wind power, and it has upheld innovations in energy industry through the deployment of ICT technologies such as smart grids. Despite these endeavors, Colombia has not yet achieved a sufficient progress in energy transition. Investment in non-traditional renewable energy such as solar and wind power still stays at the initial stage of implementation, while innovations in energy industries such as the introduction of smart grids are still at the stage of planning.
   Recently, the Colombian government has actively implemented the energy transition policy in order to reduce 20-30% of greenhouse gas emissions, an objective that it proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). Prompted by this policy change, Colombia’s renewable energy sector has experienced a rapid growth in private investment. Additionally, international assistance for mitigation and adaptation to fight climate change in Colombia continues to grow. Accordingly, Colombia is expected to offer greater opportunities to South Korea for private investment and development cooperations in the energy and climate change sectors.
   Secondly, Ecuador is one of the leading oil-producing countries in LAC. It has been the only members of OPEC along with Venezuela in the region. Ecuador is a net exporter of energy, exporting 60% of the primary energy production. Oil accounts for 87% of the primary energy production in Ecuador. The energy system of Ecuador is structured to be dependent on oil. Nonetheless, since the adoption of a new constitution in 2008, which is the first in the world to recognize the rights for nature, the Ecuador’s government has accelerated the efforts to transform its energy structure to be environmentally sound. More tangible changes have been made in the arena of electric energy. Driven by the renewable energy policies oriented toward hydro power, the capacity of renewable energy surpassed the capacity of fossil fuels for the first time since 2016. As of 2019, renewable energy accounts for more than 75% of the total electricity generated in Ecuador.
   The greenhouse gas emissions of Ecuador stay at a modified level when compared with the global average. Still, Ecuador’s government has joined the collective endeavors to confront climate crisis by proposing to reduce a maximum 45.8% of greenhouse gas emission in its INDC. To meet the challenge, Ecuador’s government has given policy priority to the electrification. To be specific, it has focused on supplying electric vehicles to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, which generates the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions. The electrification of the Ecuadorian economy is expected to accelerate its pace as the government passed new Energy Efficiency Law that mandates all new city and provincial buses to be electric beginning in 2025.
   Thirdly, Bolivia is a major producer of natural gas in LAC. Natural gas accounts for 81% of the primary energy production in Bolivia and 70% of natural gas produced in the country is exported. Governing for almost 14 years from 2006 to 2019, Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia tightened state control over natural resources. Driven by such policy measures as well as the increased market price of natural gas, Bolivia has accomplished an annual average of 4% economic growth over the las decade. Another remarkable achievement has been the significant improvement in the energy provision to the rural and remote zones.
   Despite these achievements, Bolivia still remains to be the poorest country in terms of its income per capita in South America. As such, the priority in her energy policy is oriented towards energy security for affordable and stable energy supplies. Rather than emphasizing energy transition to cope with climate crisis, a greater weight is given to ensure economic and social development by utilizing energy resources such as natural gas and lithium. Still, Bolivia has made meaningful progresses in energy transition prompted by recent renewable energy policies that are designed to expand the supply of electricity to remote and rural areas by fostering the development of renewable energies such as hydro, solar, and wind power.
   Tightened state control over energy resources in combination with a relatively high poverty rate have hindered active foreign investment in the Bolivian energy industries. On the other hand, the global community including South Korea has continued to provide substantial development assistance to foster energy transition and climate change adaptation in Bolivia.
   Fourthly, Peru is another leading exporter of natural gas in LAC. Fossil fuels including natural gas account for 80% of primary energy production in Peru. In addition to fossil fuels, Peru enjoys rich renewable energy resources such as hydro, solar, and wind power. Hydropower accounts for 50% of the nation’s electricity generation. In comparison with hydropower, the contribution of another renewable energy such as solar and wind remains relatively low, accounting for only 3.3% of the total electricity generation.
   To ensure economic growth by utilizing rich natural gas, the Peruvian government has actively promoted the development of natural gas. It also has worked to increase the share of gas in the domestic energy consumption. Hence, a priority has been given to natural gas than to renewable energy such as solar and wind power. Likewise, the recent renewable energy projects have replaced only a slight proportion of traditional fossil fuels. Nevertheless, we need to note that the Peruvian government has achieved significant progresses in its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emission and to improve its adaptation to climate change. The international community has also been actively engaged in cooperating with Peru to foster greenhouse gas mitigation and climate change adaptations of the country. As well, Peru seems to be a promising market for the investors in climate-smart technology.
   In the last section of chapter 4, we conducted a comparative analysis of the four Andean countries. All these countries have abundant energy resources. Among them, Colombia boasts of the largest scale in terms of the production, export, and consumption of energy, followed by Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia. In accordance with the global paradigm shift to energy transition, meaningful transformations are taking place in the energy policies of the four Andean countries. All these countries have changed their energy policies in a way that emphasizes energy transition, particularly the diversification of energy mix and the improvement of energy efficiency through the development of renewable energy such as hydro, solar, wind and biomass power.
   The four Andean countries have actively participated in the collective endeavors at the global level to counter climate change, which among others include the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. Pursuant to the Paris Agreement, all the four countries submitted their INDC in 2015. In addition, they have set goals for renewable energy development and have laid legal and institutional foundations to boost private investment in the renewable energy sector. Furthermore, the international community has offered a substantial assistance to foster climate change adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation in these countries.
   In the last chapter, we propose policy implications to facilitate the cooperation between South Korea and the individual four Andean countries in energy and climate change sectors. To be specific, we suggest strategies to strengthen cooperations in the following three subjects of energy innovation: financial assistance, the establishment of cooperative framework, and smart grids.


국문요약 


제1장 서론
1. 연구 필요성 및 목적
2. 연구 방법 및 차별성


제2장 세계 에너지 패러다임의 변화
1. 세계 에너지 지형의 변화
2. 세계 에너지와 기후변화 : 깨끗한 에너지와 기후변화 위기대응
3. 세계 에너지 패러다임의 변화 : 에너지 전환
4. 에너지 개발협력과 에너지신산업


제3장 라틴아메리카 에너지 패러다임의 변화
1. 라틴아메리카 에너지 수급 현황
2. 라틴아메리카의 에너지 정세 변화
3. 라틴아메리카 에너지와 기후변화
4. 라틴아메리카 에너지 전환 전망
5. 라틴아메리카 에너지신산업 투자 동향


제4장 안데스 4개국 에너지·기후변화정책과 진출 여건
제1절 콜롬비아
제2절 에콰도르
제3절 볼리비아
제4절 페루
제5절 안데스 4개국 비교분석


제5장 한국·안데스 4개국 에너지·기후변화 협력 방안
1. 에너지·기후변화 분야 민간투자와 개발협력 현황
2. 우리나라의 안데스 4개국 민간투자와 개발협력 현황
3. 한국-안데스 4개국 에너지·기후변화 분야 협력방안


제6장 결론


참고문헌


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