North Korea’s economic policy and its domestic and external strategies have undergone notable changes since the mid-2010s. The country faced a phase of “triple isolation,” precipitated by the intensification of UN sanctions in 2016–17, the breakdown of DPRK–US talks in 2019, and the closure of borders in response to COVID-19 in 2020. This period was marked by simultaneous economic, diplomatic, and physical crises, leading to compounded challenges for the regime. In response, North Korea has pursued greater centralization and resource concentration in select sectors to overcome these adversities, resulting in policy shifts emphasizing command management and targeted mobilization.​

This study aims to analyze the characteristics and impact of North Korea’s multifaceted crisis around 2019, identify the components of its new domestic and external strategies, and evaluate their outcomes using multi-source data—including satellite temperature and luminosity readings, media coverage, price indices, and trade statistics. Due to research limitations, the study mainly focuses on three domains of North Korea’s new economic strategy: production, consumption, and external relations.

A major contribution of this research is its assessment that the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in 2021 marked a clear break with prior strategies, introducing the “Comprehensive Socialist Develop- ment Line” or “Second-Phase Intensive Socialist Economic Development Strategy.” Another distinctive feature is the study’s quantitative evaluation of both policy effects and structural changes.

The structure of the research is as follows: Chapter 2 investigates the compounded crisis, its classification into economic, diplomatic, and physical isolation, and analyzes consequential changes in foreign currency acquisition—highlighting the increased role of illegal channels and centralization of foreign incomes. Chapter 3 explores the main features of North Korea’s new socio-economic strategy and institutional changes. Chapters 4 and 5 evaluate the economic implications of North Korea–Russia and North Korea–China cooperation using comparative trade analysis, RCA indices, and export price correlations, and examine industrial outcomes through sector-focused and media data approaches. Chapter 5 further analyzes commercial sector performance—including prices, retail margins, consumer imports, and satellite-based market activity indices—and uses ARDL panel models to investigate the pass- through effects of exchange rate policies.​

Quantitative findings indicate a recovery in DPRK–China trade to USD 2.2–2.3 billion by 2024, with DPRK–Russia trade witnessing rapid growth in agricultural and petroleum supply despite its overall smaller scale. Illicit trade and sanctioned labor dispatches reportedly continue. The “20×10 Local Development Policy” yielded partial positive effects, notably a 24% increase in regional nightlight during industrial construction, though long-term efficacy depends on resource stability. Structural changes in light industry sectors appear to be driving production downturns.

Within consumption and currency management, restrictive state initiatives—including the operation of state-run grain shops and the prohibition of food sales in general markets—have led to price surges and intensified shortages of staple goods. Although general consumer prices have not risen dramatically, expanded market margins indicate rising transaction costs, and the foreign exchange market remains volatile, with limited price transmission from market exchange rates to consumer imports.

In sum, North Korea’s new economic policy may survive in the short-term, but fundamental constraints and ongoing external shocks limit its sustainability. While the regime has leveraged opportunities such as the Russia–Ukraine crisis to cushion the economy, persistent institutional fragilities and external dependency point to significant long-term vulnerabilities. Russia-DPRK cooperation remains a conditional buffer stalled by broader strategic uncertainty, and continued regulatory excess and statistical opacity undermine effective policy outcomes.

In January 2026, North Korea is expected to announce a new five-year plan at the 9th Party Congress, determining whether current strategies will be prolonged or revised. Sustained performance may reinforce self-reliance and centralized control, while persistent stagnation might prompt expanded autonomy in enterprise and agriculture. In the face of adverse political or military developments, a full national mobilization could ensue. For South Korea, the findings underscore the need to revitalize humanitarian support and multilateral engagement, create indirect persuasion channels through global partners, and maintain active support for resumed dialogue among all key actors.​

국문요약

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성
2. 연구의 목적 및 내용
3. 연구의 범위 및 방법론

제2장 복합위기와 북한경제 영향
1. 개관: 북한이 직면한 복합위기
2. 복합위기의 영향 분석
3. 새로운 기회와 북한의 전략적 전환

제3장 새로운 대내외 경제전략의 주요 내용과 특징
1. 북한 경제전략의 특징과 변화
2. 새로운 대내경제전략의 주요 내용
3. 새로운 대외경제전략의 주요 내용
4. 지속가능성 평가: 제도적 측면

제4장 경제적 성과 평가: 대외경제와 생산 부문
1. 대외경제 부문의 성과 평가
2. 생산 부문의 성과 평가
3. 지속가능성 평가: 대외경제와 생산 부문

제5장 경제적 성과 평가: 소비와 외환 부문
1. 상업 부문 성과 평가
2. 외환관리 분야 성과 평가
3. 지속가능성 평가: 소비와 외환 부문

제6장 새로운 대내외 경제전략의 지속가능성 종합 평가와 시사점
1. 연구 결과 요약
2. 신경제전략의 지속가능성 종합 평가
3. 북한경제 변화 전망 및 정책 제언

참고문헌

Executive Summary