A key factor in the successful economic unification of South and North Korea will be to promote the catch-up process of the North Korean economy to the current level of the South Korean economy as soon as possible. If large differences in economic and living standards continue to exist between the two countries after unification it will be difficult to restrict migration from North to South. In that case, South Korea will have to bear an enormous social cost for accepting and assimilating those immigrants from North. Such social costs include the cost for job training, unemployment insurance, and to deal with social conflicts. To control the cost of migration from North to South Korea it will be necessary to vitalize the North Korean economy by reforming the very inefficient economic system that exists in the country.
  Trade liberalization is a very powerful driver when it comes to improving economic efficiency. The knowledge spillover effect realized through procurement of intermediate products from advanced countries is expected to contribute to upgrading North Korea’s production technology. Furthermore, the increased competition from imported goods should lead to the improvement of misallocation of production resources in the economy.
  When we analyze the effects of trade liberalization on economic development in the current economy, we should take into account not only the effects of the international trade of final goods but also those from the trade of parts and components. Multinational firms in advanced economies relocate their labor-intensive work to developing countries and have established global value chains (GVC). Hence, the trade relationship between countries has become more complicated and sophisticated in the current global economy. In addition, the establishment of GVCs has changed the nature of international trade and foreign direct investment. For example, an increase or decrease in automobile exports from China to the USA does not influence only the two countries’ economies but also influences the Japanese economy, as Japanese manufacturers export intermediate products to Chinese automobile manufacturers.
  This aim of this study is to assess the effect that inter-Korea trade liberalization will have on the Japanese and North Korean economy. In order to properly take into account the effects realized through GVCs, we employed the international input-output tables developed by the Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) in this analysis. Although we have information about international input-output relations in the industries between South Korea and Japan, we do not have this information for between North Korea and Japan. Using North Korean GDP figures by industry in 2011, and the South Korean IO table for 1970, we estimated the North Korean IO table for 2011. Then by combining export-import data in 23 sectors for the year 2000 from the United Nation’s Comtrade database, and information from the 1970 South Korea-Japan IO table, we estimated the North Korea-Japan international I-O table of 2011. By employing this estimated North Korea-Japan international IO table, we can examine the effect of trade liberalization on both economies. We assume that North Korea’s export amount to Japan increases by 10 times from that in 2000, and the assumed export amount to be about 1.7 billion dollars in 2011. We calculate the induced output effect by industry in North Korea from increased export from North Korea and Japan, and the obtained total effect is 4.5 billion dollars. The induced output effect in North Korea by industry is the largest in the textile and textile products industry, followed by basic and fabricated metals, transport equipment and electrical and optical equipment. We calculated the spillover effect to Japanese industrial production from the increase in exports from North Korea to Japan and obtained a total effect of 9.2 billion dollars. The Japanese industries benefitting the most from this rise in exports were basic and fabricated metals, textile and textile products, transport equipment and the commercial sector. These results imply that the expansion of exports from North Korea to Japan will have a larger economic benefit for the Japanese economy. The increased exports from North Korea to Japan will induce industrial production in North Korea, with this increased production leading to increased production in Japan. This is because the North Korean industries need to procure more parts and components from Japan for their incremental production. While the effect of incremental amounts of production are limited in light of Japan’s total GDP, they represent an important contribution to the output of its manufacturing industries, which are losing international competitiveness.
  The trade liberalization of North Korea is expected to have a large economic benefit for both Japan and North Korea. In order to enjoy the larger economic benefits from the liberalization of trade to Japan, Japanese industries should try to outsource labor-intensive procedures to North Korea.
 

서언

국문요약

Executive Summary

서장 들어가며

Ⅰ. 글로벌 가치사슬(GVC)에 관한 선행 연구 조사

1. GVC에 대응하는 통계 작성의 중요성
2. 국제산업연관표에 따른 분석
3. GVC에서 산업 생산단계의 의의

Ⅱ. 한국의 FTA가 경제에 미치는 효과의 사례 연구: 한·중 FTA를 중심으로

1. FTA의 효과-동태적 효과와 정태적 효과
2. 한국의 FTA 체결·교섭 상황
3. 한·중 FTA에 관한 선행 연구
4. 한국이 FTA에 상정, 기대하는 메리트
5. 칠레·한국의 예-타결 내용과 효과의 평가, 중회귀 분석을 사용하여

Ⅲ. 한국·북한의 무역자유화가 일본 경제에 GVC를 통하여 미치는 효과 분석

1. 북한의 산업연관표
2. 다국간의 생산 유발 효과 분석
3. 북한과의 무역자유화가 일본 경제에 미치는 효과
4. 북한의 산업구조와 일본과의 산업연관의 변경이 일본 경제에 미치는 효과 분석

Ⅳ. 일본 경제에 바람직한 GVC 형성을 위한 일본의 대응 전략

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌