Over the past two decades, China has systematically promoted the semiconductor industry as a central pillar of its national development strategy. In recent years, this effort has intensified as technological self-reliance and supply-chain security have been elevated to core national priorities. Against the backdrop of escalating U.S. export controls and heightened geopolitical tensions, China has accelerated investments in advanced semiconductor technologies while seeking to reduce structural dependence on foreign suppliers.

China’s semiconductor development strategy can be characterized by three interrelated features. First, it is underpinned by strong state-led industrial policies. Through major strategic frameworks such as Made in China 2025 and the Guidelines for the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry, semiconductors have been designated as a strategic core industry. These initiatives have been supported by extensive policy instruments, including large-scale fiscal support, tax incentives, and systematic talent development and recruitment programs. Second, China has pursued the localization of critical technologies with the explicit objective of achieving technological self-sufficiency. Particular emphasis has been placed on increasing domestic production capacity in semiconductor equipment and materials, where reliance on foreign technologies has historically been most pronounced. Third, from a medium- to long-term perspective, China has sought to establish China-centered industrial clusters amid the ongoing reconfiguration of global semiconductor supply chains, thereby fostering a domestically anchored semiconductor ecosystem.

Despite these sustained policy efforts, China’s semiconductor industry remains heavily dependent on foreign technologies in several critical process stages. This dependency is especially evident in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, advanced electronic design automation (EDA) tools, cutting-edge manufacturing equipment, and specialized materials. These structural vulnerabilities have become primary targets of U.S.-led export control measures. In particular, the strengthened restrictions implemented since October 2022 have imposed material constraints on China’s ability to produce advanced semiconductors. Empirical evidence indicates that China’s semiconductor imports from the United States declined by approximately 31 percent following the implementation of these measures—a contraction more than three times larger than that observed for non-sanctioned items.

The main policy effects identified through Event Study and Difference-in-Differences (DID) analyses can be summarized as follows. First, U.S. export controls have functioned not as a temporary shock but as a persistent structural constraint, with their impact concentrated on key process inputs such as high-performance chips, high-purity materials, and advanced manufacturing equipment. Second, although import substitution through alternative sourcing channels initially mitigated some of the supply disruptions, these channels have become increasingly constrained over time. Third, the coordinated export controls imposed by the United States and its allied countries have exerted sustained pressure on China’s capacity to secure alternative supply sources, further tightening supply-chain bottlenecks.

Importantly, the policy effects have exhibited a dynamic temporal pattern rather than a one-off disruption. Semiconductor imports fell sharply in 2022, showed partial adjustment in 2023, and declined again in 2024, suggesting that export controls have generated cumulative and reinforcing constraints rather than transitory effects. This pattern underscores the structural nature of the restrictions and highlights the growing difficulty China faces in sustaining advanced semiconductor production under an increasingly restrictive external environment.

From an academic perspective, this analysis contributes to the existing literature by providing quantitative evidence for policy effects that have often been discussed primarily in qualitative terms. By empirically tracing both the magnitude and temporal evolution of import reductions, the study offers a more rigorous assessment of how export controls reshape semiconductor supply chains over time.

Several policy implications emerge from these findings. Korea faces both risks and opportunities as China advances its semiconductor self-reliance strategy amid global supply-chain reconfiguration. In the short term, Korea may benefit from opportunities to supply advanced equipment and materials to China, partially filling technology gaps created by U.S. export restrictions. In the longer term, however, Korea must simultaneously safeguard its proprietary technologies and strengthen supply-chain resilience. This calls for a dual strategy that combines the strategic utilization of production bases in China with reinforced domestic capabilities aimed at sustaining technological leadership.

In conclusion, China’s semiconductor industry is undergoing rapid transformation under the combined pressures of external constraints and internal strategic realignment. As competition and selective cooperation among major economies reshape the global semiconductor landscape, Korea stands at a critical strategic juncture. Carefully calibrated and balanced policy responses will be essential to maximize emerging opportunities while effectively managing long-term risks. This study provides an empirically grounded framework to inform such strategic decision-making, offering deeper insights into the evolving structure of global semiconductor competition than those available in previous research.

국문요약

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 필요성 및 목적
2. 선행연구 검토
3. 연구의 구성과 차별성

제2장 중국 반도체 수출입 구조 분석
1. 중국 반도체 수출입
2. 중국 반도체 수출입 유형 및 지역 분석

제3장 중국의 반도체 생산 지역 분포
1. 서론
2. 반도체 기업 현황 및 생산 지역 분포
3. 지역적 분포의 결정 요인
4. 결론 및 시사점

제4장 중국 반도체 첨단기술 개발 현황과 기술 격차 분석
1. 글로벌 첨단 반도체 기술 개발 동향
2. 중국 반도체 기술 개발 현황
3. 중국 반도체 기술의 격차 분석
4. 중국의 기술 격차 극복 노력
5. 소결

제5장 중국 반도체 산업 생태계
1. 서론
2. 산업 발전 현황과 주요 기업
3. 중국 반도체 산업 발전 과정과 정책
4. 금융 지원
5. 인재 양성과 유치
6. 인프라
7. 결론 및 시사점

제6장 중국 반도체 산업의 경쟁력 분석
1. 중국 메모리 반도체 산업의 경쟁력 분석
2. 중국 시스템 반도체 산업의 경쟁력 분석
3. 광ㆍ개별 소자 산업의 경쟁력 분석
4. 반도체 제조용 장비 산업의 경쟁력 분석
5. 실리콘 웨이퍼, 소재 및 부품 산업의 경쟁력 분석

제7장 미국의 대중국 반도체 수출통제 영향 분석
1. 서론: 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 기본 DID 분석: 수출통제의 평균 효과
3. HS8 상위 30개 품목별 영향 분석
4. 정책 효과의 동태적 변화 분석
5. 주요국의 파트너 대체효과 분석
6. 추가적인 공급망 영향 분석: 국산화 및 집중도 변화
7. 소결 및 시사점

제8장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
1. 중국 반도체 산업의 구조적 특징과 변화 방향
2. 공급망 안정성 확보 방안: 한국 정부와 기업의 대응
3. 기술력 경쟁 우위 유지 전략
4. 국내 반도체 생태계 강화 방안
5. 미ㆍ중 갈등하에서의 산업 전략
6. 국제 협력 및 리스크 분산 전략

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary