As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, tensions in the Taiwan Strait are escalating. The wars in Ukraine (2022) and between Israel and Palestine (2023) have further heightened global uncertainty. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has designated Taiwan as the most dangerous region since 2021. U.S. military, intelligence leaders, and academic experts have warned of potential military conflict over Taiwan by 2027, and numerous reports assume U.S. intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion. China has conducted four large-scale military exercises around the Taiwan Strait since the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration (2016–2023) and following the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te (2024–present). The Trump administration’s second term further underscored China’s expanding influence and its ambitions regarding Taiwan in its Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance (INDSG) released in March 2025. Against this backdrop, the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) strengthened pro-independence stance, increased U.S. legislative and military support, and China’s declaration of possible military unification have collectively exacerbated political and diplomatic instability among the United States, China, and Taiwan. In particular, Taiwan’s geostrategic value—bolstered by its advanced semiconductor technology—is gaining prominence, further intensifying U.S.-China rivalry.

As a result, there is growing focus on whether Trump’s second term will lead to a fourth Taiwan Strait crisis amid tensions between the United States, China, and Taiwan. This is because various issues surrounding Taiwan are expected to have a direct impact on the economic and industrial stability of Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan as these tensions intensify. Therefore, there is an increasing need to analyze the mutually complementary industrial structures between Taiwan and South Korea, China, and Japan, and to measure the potential ripple effects in preparation for a Taiwan crisis.

Against this backdrop, this study comprehensively analyzes the potential impact of a Taiwan crisis on the economies and industries of South Korea, China, and Japan in East Asia, based on a scenario involving Trump’s second term. It aims to examine the triangular relationship between the United States, China, and Taiwan not only from a political perspective but also from an economic standpoint.

Above all, unlike political conflicts, cross-strait relations continue to exhibit a strong structure of economic interdependence. In 2024, Taiwan’s export and import dependence on China (including Hong Kong) stood at 20.3% and 26.6%, respectively, with electrical and electronic machinery accounting for 62.3% of this trade, indicating a high level of supply chain linkage. As of 2020, six of China’s top ten exporting companies were Taiwanese firms, primarily in the information and communications sector. Taiwanese companies also remain a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, contributing significantly to tax revenue and job creation. Furthermore, measures such as China’s tourism restrictions and the partial suspension of tariff-free trade under the ECFA have not had a significant impact on Taiwan’s macroeconomy.

This duality in cross-strait relations functions in an even more complex way within the triangular dynamics of the United States, China, and Taiwan. The Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) government has strengthened its pursuit of independence by focusing on advanced semiconductor manufacturing and expanding diplomatic and security cooperation with the United States to counter China. In parallel, the United States, aiming to decouple its semiconductor industry from China, has deepened cooperation with Taiwan and encouraged TSMC’s investment in the U.S. through initiatives such as the CHIPS Act.

At the same time, while Taiwan pursues a strategy aligned with the United States in the semiconductor sector, it seeks to maintain strategic balance by managing its economic ties with China. Notably, Taiwan’s semiconductor exports to China (HS code: 8542) in 2024 are approximately six times larger than those to the United States. Although Taiwan’s export dependence on China is gradually declining and its reliance on the U.S. market is increasing, this trend does not indicate a complete decoupling from China, as political tensions in the Taiwan Strait persist. This pattern reflects structural factors, including rising labor costs in China, the substitution of intermediate goods due to China’s industrial upgrading, the erosion of Taiwan’s comparative industrial advantage, and the impact of the U.S. ‘Friend-Shoring’ strategy.

Moreover, under the second Trump administration, U.S. policy toward Taiwan has shifted toward a more pragmatic approach characterized by transactional diplomacy rooted in ‘America First’ (MAGA) principles. Following TSMC’s announcement of a $100 billion investment in the U.S., Washington has adopted measures such as pressuring Taiwan to increase defense spending and imposing higher tariffs, thereby exacerbating security concerns within Taiwan. Consequently, Taiwan may adjust its diplomatic strategy to prioritize practical interests between the United States and China. While the United States has enacted pro-Taiwan legislation and provided military support, ambiguity persists regarding the extent of U.S. military intervention in a Taiwan contingency, particularly in terms of defense spending commitments and the political will to resist Chinese aggression.

Therefore, Taiwan is expected to avoid transferring core semiconductor technology to the United States and focus on strengthening its domestic production capabilities to maintain its strategic position. The United States will likely continue intervening in cross-strait relations due to its need for cooperation with Taiwan, while China will accelerate semiconductor localization and maintain its involvement in cross-strait dynamics. As a result, a semiconductor security balance among the United States, China, and Taiwan may emerge, potentially stabilizing tensions in the Taiwan Strait to a certain extent (Scenario I: Status Quo Among the United States, China, and Taiwan).

Conversely, if Taiwan’s core semiconductor technology is transferred to the United States, Taiwan’s strategic value may decline as the U.S. achieves semiconductor localization, leading to reduced U.S. engagement in cross-strait affairs. Meanwhile, China would likely accelerate localization efforts and continue its intervention. If Taiwan further advances its independence agenda, U.S. support may become more limited, increasing the likelihood of intensified Chinese pressure and Taiwan’s isolation (Scenario II: Taiwan’s Isolation). In such a scenario, South Korea, China, and Japan—countries deeply interconnected with Taiwan through industrial and trade structures—would face inevitable economic and industrial losses. This study analyzes the structural impacts of the Taiwan issue on these economies, with particular attention to ripple effects in the semiconductor sector. It further quantifies production and export multiplier effects using input-output (IO) analysis and assesses competitiveness and vulnerabilities in the semiconductor industry through trade statistics (TSI, RCA, ESI, Interdependence Ratio) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Through industrial linkage analysis, Scenario I: Status Quo demonstrates that industrial linkages between Taiwan and the three East Asian countries—South Korea, China, and Japan—remain intact, generating positive spillover effects on production and exports. China exhibits strong production linkages with Taiwan, while South Korea shows robust export linkages. Japan maintains a relatively stable trade structure, particularly in intermediate goods and equipment exports. Taiwan continues to play a central role in the East Asian supply chain, especially in electrical and electronic equipment, precision machinery, metal, chemical, and general machinery sectors. This suggests that the region’s industrial cooperation structure is unlikely to be easily disrupted in the short term, even as U.S.-China strategic competition intensifies.

In contrast, Scenario II: Taiwan Isolation reveals that all three countries—South Korea, China, and Japan—would suffer significant economic shocks across industries, particularly in electrical and precision machinery. The analysis indicates total losses of $161.1 billion in production-induced effects and $371.9 billion in export- induced effects. South Korea would incur $13.79 billion and $51.18 billion in losses, respectively, with relatively modest production impacts but high sensitivity in export effects, highlighting significant supply chain dependency risks. China would face losses of $120.19 billion and $232.27 billion, respectively, with substantial impacts across industries, particularly in electrical and electronic sectors. Japan would incur losses of $27.15 billion and $89.45 billion, concentrated in metal and machinery-centric industries, raising concerns about intermediate goods supply stability. Overall, Taiwan’s industrial share and multiplier effects in electrical and electronic equipment and precision machinery are the largest among these economies, underscoring its strategic role in East Asia’s supply chain.

To analyze changes in semiconductor industry competitiveness among Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Japan, this study examined export-import structures and supply chain relationships across eight key semiconductor categories. Taiwan demonstrates high export competitiveness in foundry operations (notably TSMC) focused on system semiconductors, as well as individual devices and diodes. South Korea maintains a strong position in memory semiconductors. China holds significant market shares in silicon wafers, memory semiconductors, and discrete semiconductor components, while Japan excels in semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment, including integrated circuit and discrete components.

If Taiwan’s semiconductor exports were to cease, the impacts would be as follows: South Korea would face bottlenecks in system semiconductors, disrupting production and undermining competitiveness in high-value-added ICT industries such as smartphones, AI semiconductors, and telecommunications equipment. Supply disruptions of intermediate goods, including diodes and transistors, would lead to production delays and higher costs. China would urgently need to secure alternative suppliers for system and memory semiconductors, integrated circuit components, and silicon wafers, with supply gaps in high-performance chips creating critical vulnerabilities in AI and high-performance computing. Japan, heavily dependent on system and memory semiconductor imports, would face production setbacks in automotive and advanced manufacturing due to disruptions in automotive semiconductors and control chips. Additionally, a halt in exports to Taiwan could trigger secondary declines in Japan’s exports of semiconductor materials, components, and equipment.

According to the results of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis, changes in Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain are recognized as a complex variable encompassing risks across geopolitical, technological, supply chain, and economic dimensions. In Scenario I: Status Quo, where Taiwan’s semiconductor competitiveness strengthens, South Korea (0.3229) and China (0.2915) are the most affected. South Korea’s vulnerability stems from technological competition pressure with Taiwan and excessive supply dependency, whereas China’s vulnerability is driven by its strategic objective of narrowing the technological gap with Taiwan. Differences in perception among expert groups were identified: South Korean and Japanese experts assessed South Korea’s exposure as greater, while Chinese and Taiwanese experts assessed China’s exposure as greater.

In contrast, under Scenario II: Taiwan Isolation, where disruptions occur in the semiconductor supply chain, the United States (0.2960) is expected to be the most affected, followed by South Korea (0.2595), China (0.2379), and Japan (0.2066). This reflects the United States’ high dependence on TSMC, coupled with its semiconductor self-reliance still being in a transitional phase, such that supply disruptions from Taiwan could rapidly escalate into strategic risks. In this scenario, South Korean and Chinese experts assessed the impact on South Korea as greater, whereas Japanese and Taiwanese experts assessed the impact on the United States as greater. Overall, South Korea demonstrated high sensitivity in both scenarios, indicating that its industrial structure is particularly susceptible to changes in Taiwan’s supply chain and underscoring the urgent need for measures beyond addressing simple trade imbalances to mitigate industrial security risks.

Based on this analysis, the study recommends that South Korea strengthen its supply chain resilience and secure greater strategic autonomy to effectively respond to U.S.-China strategic competition and Taiwan-related risks. This requires investment in R&D across the full value chain, including the internalization of system semiconductor production, advancement of memory semiconductor technologies, and development of next-generation semiconductor technologies. Additionally, it is essential to restructure the semiconductor industry ecosystem as a national strategic sector and establish a virtuous cycle of technology development, talent cultivation, and capital investment.

Moreover, multi-layered response strategies are necessary, including supply chain diversification, localization of core components, and strategic stockpiling of key materials, as well as enhancing global value chain stability through multilateral cooperation with the United States, Japan, and the EU. South Korea must also play a leading role in restoring WTO functions and strengthening the multilateral trade system to help establish a sustainable trade order amid global trade uncertainties. In this context, it is critical to proactively explore mid- to long-term strategies to stabilize supply chains and reinforce industrial security through comprehensive analyses that anticipate structural shocks arising from U.S.-China strategic competition and Taiwan-related risks.

국문요약

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 선행연구 검토 및 차별성
3. 연구 범위와 구성

제2장 대만을 둘러싼 미ㆍ중 전략경쟁과 트럼프 2기 대만 정책
1. 양안관계의 변화
2. 미ㆍ중 전략경쟁과 트럼프 2기 대만 정책
3. 트럼프 2기 대만 문제 시나리오

제3장 대만 문제와 동아시아 주요국의 산업 및 무역 연관관계 변화
1. 분석 체계
2. 대만의 對한ㆍ중ㆍ일 산업 및 무역 연관관계 변화와 파급 영향
3. 소결

제4장 동아시아 주요국의 반도체 산업경쟁력 변화와 영향
1. 대만-한ㆍ중ㆍ일 간 반도체 산업경쟁력 분석
2. 대만 반도체 산업 환경 변화와 주요국에 미치는 영향

제5장 결론
1. 요약 및 결론
2. 시사점 및 정책 제언

참고문헌

Executive Summary