Acknowledgements

Contributors

1 Introduction / Bokyeong Park and Barry Eichengreen

2 Financial Reform after the Crisis / Nicolas Véron
1. Introduction
2. The Dynamics of Financial Reform
3. Challenges and Outlook

3 Did WTO Rules Restrain Protectionism During the Recent Systemic Crisis? / Simon J. Evenett
1. Introduction
2. Twenty-first Century Protectionism in an Era of Systemic Crisis: Some Preliminary Considerations
3. The Resort to Discrimination Against Foreign Commercial Interests Since the First Crisis-era G20 Summit in November 2008
4. An Assessment of the Impact of WTO Rules During the Recent Systemic Crisis
5. Concluding Remarks


4 The International Monetary System after the Financial Crisis / Barry Eichengreen
1. The Global Reserve System
2. The Emergency Provision of Liquidity
3. Regulating Capital Flows
4. The Role of the IMF
5. Conclusion

5 The Group of 20: Trials of Global Governance in Times of Crisis / Ignazio Angeloni
1. Benefits from International Coordination: Reviewing the Arguments
2. A Narrative of the G20 in Times of Crisis
3. Scoreboards of Success
4. Taking Stock and Looking Forward

6 Emerging Markets in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis / Eswar S. Prasad
1. Introduction
2. Rising Prominence of EMEs
3. The Distribution of World Growth
4. What Explains the Resilience of Emerging Markets?
5. Global Public Debt and Implications for the Growth Gap
6. Risks
7. Concluding Remarks

7 Challenges for the Asian Economy / Bokyeong Park and Jinill Kim
1. Background: Asia’s Recovery from the Global Financial Crisis
2. Transition from Export to Domestic Demand
3. Inflation as a Lingering Concern
4. Risk of the Middle Income Trap
5. Rise of China and the Future of Regional Cooperation


8 Challenges for the Advanced Economies / Joseph Gagnon and Marc Hinterschweiger
1. Introduction
2. Projected Paths of Government Debt
3. The Burden of Debt and Fiscal Limits
4. Paths to Safety
5. Conclusion

The global credit crisis of 2008-09 was the most serious shock to the world economy in 80 years. It was for the world what the Asian crisis of 1997-98 had been for emerging markets: a profoundly alarming wake-up call. By laying bare the fragility of global markets, it raised troubling questions about the operation of the 21st-century world economy. It cast doubt on the efficacy of light-touch financial regulation and, more generally, on the prevailing commitment to economic and financial liberalization. It challenged the managerial capacity of institutions of global governance. It augured a changing of the guard, pointing to the possibility that the economies that had been leaders in the global growth stakes in the past would no longer be leaders in the future.
Given that the 2008-09 crisis was first and foremost a financial crisis, it is appropriate that analysis should start with an assessment of the causes of recent financial problems and the successes and failures of post-crisis financial reform. The author argues that the traditional separation of macroeconomic and financial policies – the “Tinbergen principle” of assigning monetary policy to the maintenance of price stability and regulatory policy to financial stability – is part of what caused the crisis, and that the development of a synthesis, which flies under the flag of “macro-prudential” or “macro-financial” policy, points the way to a solution. Another striking aspect of the crisis was the abrupt collapse of international trade, which declined even more precipitously than the production of goods and services. Why the impact on trade was so dramatic continues to be debated. Then there was the protectionist response, described in Chapter 3. A few governments responded to the crisis and recession with overtly protectionist policies, but more important was “murky protectionism” defined to include not simply import tariffs, quotas and export taxes but also subsidies, bailouts, preferential public procurement practices. The global crisis also deepened disenchantment with the structure and operation of the international monetary system. It was already a commonplace that a system in which the U.S. dollar enjoyed the “exorbitant privilege” of providing the vast majority of global foreign exchange reserves was dangerously prone to imbalances. Chapter 4 sketches likely future trajectories for the international monetary arrangements. The author is dismissive of far-reaching reforms ranging from a regime based on Special Drawing Rights on the one hand to restoration of a gold-based system on the other. But he is equally skeptical about the viability of a dollar-centric monetary system like that of the recent past. The remaining option being a system organized around several national currencies – not just the dollar but also the euro and the Chinese renminbi, the question then becomes how to ease the transition to such a system and to smooth its operation once it arrives.
Among the notable long-term consequences of the crisis has been the emergence of the Group of Twenty (G20) as the de facto steering committee for the world economy, displacing earlier advanced-country-centered groupings, notably the Group of Seven/Eight (G7/8). But, institutionally, the G20 remains a work in progress. As explained in Chapter 5, it has no permanent staff or written constitution. It has no global mandate; why it includes the countries it does reflects the particular historical process out of which it emerged. The details of how the G20 will work with multilateral organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and Financial Stability Board when additional problems arise remain to be determined. As the growing prominence of the G20 reveals, another consequence of the crisis has been to enhance the weight of emerging markets in the world economy. Their economies held up best in the face of the shock, and they continue to grow robustly. Chapter 6 marshals a number of indicators showing just how fast the emerging markets have grown and how importantly they now figure in the world economy. At the same time, as the author explains, these countries face serious challenges in the post-crisis environment. Stagnation in the advanced countries is a challenge for their traditional strategy of export-led growth. Chapter 7 focuses more closely on the challenges facing the emerging markets of East Asia in particular. The global crisis of 2008-09 and, more recently, financial turmoil in Europe had relatively little impact on East Asia’s fast-growing economies. The emerging markets of East Asia, it was increasingly asserted, had successfully decoupled from the advanced-country world. The authors ask in the chapter whether this will remain the case going forward. As global liquidity strains rose again in the latter part of 2011, a number of East Asian currencies weakened substantially, highlighting the region’s continuing dependence on external financial conditions. But if the challenges that emerging markets will face in the new post-crisis environment will be formidable, they pale in comparison with those that will confront the advanced economies. The advanced economies as a group emerged from the crisis with large budget deficits and heavy debts. Winding down those deficits without derailing recovery and damaging the prospects for growth will not be easy. All this takes place against a gloomy demographic backdrop that implies rising old-age dependency ratios, heavy pension obligations and health care costs, and a declining share of the population participating in the labor force. Chapter 8 takes up these issues. The authors frame their analysis around a number of distinctions. Notwithstanding numerous differences among economies, medium-term fiscal challenges are daunting across the advanced-country world. Under any plausible projection of the evolution of macroeconomic variables, current policies are not sustainable. Difficult decisions are unavoidable.
The global financial crisis has cast a long shadow. It has profoundly affected the advanced economies, emerging markets and the balance between them. The implications for the international trade, the monetary and financial system, and global governance are far reaching. Drawing out those implications and beginning to comprehend what they mean for the future is the task the authors take up, collectively, in this volume.

The Northeast Asian region is one of the most dynamic economic centers of the world, having China, Japan, and Korea as major players, with productive linkages to resource-rich Russia and Mongolia, and to the Pacific and North America. In contrast to the region’s robust economic growth, regional security has long been fragile, mainly due to the geopolitical conditions resulting from the Cold War era. In the twenty-first century, if the countries in Northeast Asia wish to further their development and prosperity, they will have to learn to harness their dynamic economies and create a region in which peaceful coexistence and common prosperity prevail. North Korea, Mongolia, the Russian Far East, and the northeastern provinces of China constitute a northern sub-region that is well-endowed with latent natural and human resources. This sub-region has the potential of becoming a valuable source of natural resources for the entire region, and what is needed is to realize that potential through cross border infrastructure development. Energy security and efficiency, the environment, and green growth, for example, constitute an important area of cooperation, as the three major countries of China, Japan and Korea are heavily dependent on energy imports and are highly vulnerable to energy crises. Financing requirements for the necessary cross-border infrastructure are likely to be large, and a regional financial institution is a key to meeting that financing need. This volume, which is the third in the series of volumes entitled, Financing for Regional Economic Integration for Northeast Asia, comprises papers, research reports, and summaries of a main conference and several specialized meetings, as well as affiliated activities, that took place under this project. The results of this project represent activities contributing to the regional economic integration and have been carried out in a spirit of cooperation.

The regions of study for this particular project are parts of North Africa, especially the Maghrib region covering Morocco and Algeria where a series of recent political unrests that have taken place in Arabic World are latent among the various tribes living there. The reason we call the two countries “Maghrib” is that they both share the same historical experience, memories and cultural heritages.
Both countries, Morocco and Algeria, were colonized by France and also are where a majority of Berbers natives live. Most of them have converted to Islam and they have become a part of Islamic world. However, the Berbers have their own language and cultural traditions. That’s what separates the Maghrib from the rest of the Islamic countries. Although they had lived harmoniously with Arabics without much conflict, they have strongly voiced their own cultural autonomy since they gained independence in the mid 20th Century. Such demands have continuously come into conflicts with the national plans to turn the countries into Arabic Islamic nations.
This study pays close attention not only to the aspects of self-identity, language and culture, but also to the conflicts arising from the dichotomic nature of being Arabic and Berber at the same. And then we will look further into the past and the present of the region. In order to fully comprehend this subject matter, we have carried out extensive field works by taking a long trip to the region in addition to studying various texts. We have focused our observation and research on Kabylia, Aures and M’Zab in Algeria and Rif in Morocco. It was the intent of this study to find out their place in their own countries besides various characteristics of the region. The followings are what we have studied and included in this research.
First, in order to help understand the Berbers in Maghrib, we have looked at the geological features of the region, structural characteristics of the various tribes, the present state of each Maghrib’s nations, and overall review of the region.
Second, we have looked into the Berbers, the primary subject of this project; who they are, what their own language means to them and how they have accepted and at the same time resisted the Arab Islamic culture.

Third, we have studied their history of coexistence and conflict, especially how the Arabs and the Berbers have confronted each other which forms the important basis in understanding them. We also pay attention to their continuous search for their own identity in the dichotomic state. In addition, we have looked at various examples of conflicts currently going on in Algeria and the significance of constitutional reform in Morocco which could possibly pose a big turning point to them.

Fourth, we have covered the regional characteristics of Berbers in Algeria, Morocco which we have found through our field studies. And we have discussed not only the values of Berber’s young generation, but also the problems they face everyday.

The purpose of this study is to conduct comparative analysis on the characteristics of political power structure of the Middle Eastern countries which is going through dramatic political change. In order to do so, it tries to categorize the countries according to types of power structures, so as to understand the region better, and eventually contribute to make korea’s policy toward the Middle East.

This study suggests its own standard of classification, by adopting some previous analyses by several scholars. As a result, it categorizes ten selected Middle Eastern countries into ’Republic Bunker states’, ’Republic Bully states’, ’Monarchy of exclusive nepotism’, and ’Monarchy of inclusive nepotism’. Based on this classification, this study raises questions; ’what is the characteristics of power structure of the Middle Eastern countries and how does it manifest according to the political system?’. In order to answer the questions, this study examines the nature of political institutions of each country, the role of various political elites, and the variables of political instability not only in political arena, but also in social, tribal and religious aspects.
Consequently, this study generalizes the characteristics of political power structure as follows. As for bunker states, first of all, they share critical features that the family, tribe and religious sect of the leader exclusively occupy key posts both in politics and economy, prompted by coercive rule. However, dynamics of political relations among the elites are distinct from each other, based on whether they have tribalism or sectarianism.
Second, bully states have less autonomy in authority than bunker states. In the bully states, patronage system and crony capitalism are the driving force of long-term dictatorship. Since the fall of several autocrats, Islamic parties have received attention leaving a question whether they can grow up as political elite group. On the other hand, bully states would be suffered from instability due to the conflicts between existing elites and opposition figures, or among opposition leaders themselves. Moreover, they also would have possible conflict between Islamists and secularlists, and have economic problems such as high rate of unemployment.
Third, in monarchies of exclusive nepotism, where a certain family monopolizes the political power, the role of legislature and judiciary is quite limited. In those countries, political reform is one of the strategies to relive domestic dissatisfactions. Meanwhile, the basic source of legitimacy of the regime, and constitutive characteristics of political elites are various according to countries.
Fourth, monarchies of inclusive nepotism shows a difference from the exclusive ones, in terms of their distribution of power. When it comes to the principles of checks and balances, and limitations on constitutionalism, these type of countries have in common with the exclusive monarchies. However, the causes of political instability, including power struggle within the regime, tribal feud, and resistance of the Islamists, are different from country to country.
Finally, considering that the generalization of political power structure cannot give an answer to fully understand the indigenous features of each country, this study tries to explain unique characteristics of the countries as well.

This book is an attempt to review recent development of Islamic finance and to provide the practical guidance and policy implication to experts of financial industry and government in Korea. It consists of three parts such as a theoretical background, a recent development and its future application of Islamic finance in Korea.
The first part provides theories for Islamic finance. First, it explains the conventional banking and finance theory and later we show how Islamic finance provides the conventional banking service with observing the Sharia, the rule of Islam.
The second part shows the recent development of Islamic finance in major countries. More specifically, it explains how the Islamic finance of GCC countries and Iran has been developed for the past decade or more. It also includes the success story of Islamic finance of Malaysia and the role of its development strategy. The cases of its recent development of advanced countries of France, UK, US and Japan are also provided.
Finally, it suggests several practical implications for policy makers and for financial market participants in Korea. For example, it indicates that Korea will be able to take several benefits by utilizing Islamic finance in the international finance market such as portfolio diversification effects.
We believe that this book is the first comprehensive book for Islamic finance in Korea. We hope that it can provide much information to the academicians, market participants and policy makers of financial market and industry in Korea.

It is assessed that Middle East and North Africa (“MENA”) area has large potential for development of a renewable energy industry due to its blessed natural condition suitable for various types of renewable energy generation, such as photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation. However, investment for development of a renewable energy industry and degree of development of such industry has been rather marginal in MENA area as compared to its high potential.
However, as countries in MENA area have started to be concerned with depletion of fossil fuels, including petroleum and natural gas, and how to respond to global climate change, the countries have realized necessity of developing new energy sources and have increased amount of investment for a renewable energy industry. Furthermore, there has been sharp increase of demand for energy in MENA area due to population increase and development of various industries and major countries in MENA area, such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, have expressed that they will take more proactive approach for development of a renewable energy industry. Consequently, it is expected that there will be rapid increase in investment in a renewable energy industry sector. As a matter of fact, many countries in MENA area, including Israel, Morocco, Jordan, and Algeria, have institutionally supported such interest for development of a renewable energy industry by devising new national plans, enacting new legislations and amending relevant laws and regulations for development of a renewable energy industry.
Consequently, Korean companies’ interest toward investment on a renewable energy industry in MENA area is also in an increasing trend and their large-scale investment plans are frequently announced in these days. However, Korean companies have to take multi-dimensional consideration including social, economic and political aspects into account in their investment plans for MENA area to ensure stable development of a renewable energy industry and stable investment result in MENA area. The countries in MENA area contain a high political risk due to proliferation of a civil revolution which was initially provoked in Tunisia, conflicts among different tribes within nations and confrontation with Western countries. Not only that, a risk of general investment in this area is relatively high due to inadequate number of infrastructure for resource development and incomplete nature of regulations and policies on foreign investment. Therefore, Korean companies should take sufficient consideration for these risks in their investment decision and should come up with appropriate countermeasures which the companies can take even before they execute investment plans.
Moreover, since there is also a general risk that the countries in MENA may delay their investment on a renewable energy industry, Korean companies need to devise more systematic and long-term investment plans. In the meantime, the Korean government’s leading role in foreign trade is also critical in order for Korean companies’ successful investment in MENA area. Above all, those Korean companies which are planning to invest in a renewable energy industry in MENA area must find out areas where they have technologic superiorities and specialties. After finding such areas, they must endeavor to proactively promote those superiorities and specialties and to search for plans of strategic cooperation in association with governments in MENA area, government enterprises and companies in this industry.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA), one of the major global energy suppliers, is a significant region to Korea’s economy. However, jasmine revolution, democratic movements, arose in Tunisia in January 2011, and rapidly spread to Libya, Egypt and the most countries in MENA. These movements have increased the complexity of political, economic and social environments in MENA, as they collapsed Egyptian government and broke the civil war in Libya. In addition, increase in complexity in MENA raised the global oil prices and became one of new threats to the global economic recovery. Due to the democratic revolution, called Arab Spring, the political and economic systems in MENA have changed radically compared to 2010. These changes in MENA are also rising as serious issues in South Korea, which has high dependency on imports of oil and exports of manufacturing goods. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze MENA’s democratic movements’ impact on Korea’s politics, economy and foreign policies and to establish countermeasures. For research, 16 countries were selected in MENA based on two criteria. First criteria defined whether the country had experienced political instabilities due to recent democratic movements. Second criteria defined whether the country has had close economic and political relationship with Korea. The 16 research countries include Egypt, Libya, Syria, Algeria, Iran, Morocco, Jordan, Tunisia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Iran, and Yemen. In order to analyze the features of research countries, 16 countries were categorized into three different types: type-I (stable), type-II (transforming) and type-III (unstable). Categorization was based on global competitive index, transparency index, global peace index and each country’s political, social, economic and business environments. Countries in type-I, such as Qatar and UAE were analyzed to have maintained stable political, economic, social and business environments. Countries in type-II, which include Tunisia, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, have had somewhat unstable political-social or economic-business environments. Finally, countries in type-III, including Libya, Syria, Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Egypt and Yemen, have shown unstable conditions in all political, economic, social and business environments. From a political perspective, type-III countries had longer period of power seized by one man and higher corruption reorganization index when compared to the countries of type-I. From an economic perspective, oil-rich countries in the Gulf had stable economic environments, but oil-poor countries had unstable environments. Unemployment rate of young generation was higher in type-III than in type-I. The growth rate of internet and social network users, which has been the accelerator of the democratic revolution in MENA, was higher in type-III than in type-I. After the Second World War, countries in MENA experienced political instability by the end of 1960s. From 1970s to 2000s, MENA had been under the authoritarian regime period. Recently, MENA has faced the third political shift due to the jasmine revolution. While countries in MENA are facing the third political shift, major countries, which include the U.S., EU, China and Japan, have attempted to strengthen the economic and political cooperation with MENA, according to its own policies. The U.S. has shown diverse foreign policies in MENA to secure oil resources and ensure Israel’s national security. To accomplish it, the U.S. has executed joint-military trainings and negotiated FTA with several countries in MENA. EU has had intimate relationships with MENA due to its close geographical position. EU has provided ODA and other supports to secure energy supply and strengthen economic cooperation with MENA. China has engaged MENA with diplomatic strategies that prioritized its own national interests rather than the political ideology. Also, to find the niche market, China has sustained an intimate relationship with Iran, in which the economic sanction has been imposed by the global society. China has been putting such efforts to improve its reputation among countries in MENA. Japan has kept a rather passive attitude towards political events, but actively engaged in economic events by providing large investments and supports to MENA. Korea has enforced various policies to improve the cooperation with MENA. For instance, Korea has maintained a mutual economic cooperation, established partnership to secure energy resources, and cooperated in the global society with MENA. From a diplomatic perspective, South Korea has focused on building human network and establishing environments for the economic cooperation. From an economic perspective, Korea concentrated on entering the natural resource development industry, securing energy supply and winning plant and construction contracts in MENA. However, recent changes in MENA due to the democratic revolution and political instabilities have led Korea’s government to review overall policies in MENA. Therefore, this paper provides major five political recommendations.

CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) is now emerging as one of the most important components of the corporate competitiveness. CSR activities can enhance corporate value by introducing more efficient use of resources and more transparent management. Furthermore, it helps not only satisfy social expections for companies but also produce higher corporate productivity through effective communications with the stakeholders. Especially important is the CSR activities of the companies operating abroad, because they can help companies avoid negative reputation and prevent any possible conflicts arising from business acitivies in foreign soil.

This study focuses on the current states of the CSR activities of the 34 Korean companies in five Latin American countries (Mexico, Brazil, Peru, Guatemala, Panama) and tries to locate the tasks ahead to promote CSR activities by the Korean companies in Latin America.
Our study shows that despite relatively high level of awareness of the CSR, only about 30% of the companies surveyed are involved in mentionable level of CSR activities. Most the CSR activities are being performed by the big companies whose names are well known to the consumers. One major problem is that those activities, especially the ones geared to the communities, are engaged in a rather unsystematic way and with almost no consideration for the long term development of the communities and the corporate competitiveness. CSR activities of the Korean companies are “reactive” in nature (responding to the circumstancial needs), rather than “strategic” in the sense that CSR activities are designed and engaged to strengthen corporate competitiveness as well as fulfilling the needs of the communities. Many Korean companies lack efficients organizational structure and budget earmarked for CSR activities.
The tasks ahead for effective CSR performances include selection and development of the CSR programs which reflect both the core capabilities and the strategic goals of a company. “Reactive CSR” needs to be enhanced to the level of “strategic CSR.” The way a company engages in CSR activities also needs to be changed so that local government and NGOs can participate in the CSR activities of the Korean companies.

Transit-oriented development (TOD) was initiated to comprehensively address various urban problems, including traffic congestion, dependence on fossil fuels, and air pollution, through a close link with the traffic and urban development in cities that heavily rely on vehicles. TOD was driven by the spread of low-density cities such as in the U.S. Asian countries have become very interested in this urban development planning technique because the urban problems that have recently emerged in their metropolitan areas are similar to those experienced by low-density cities in Western countries. Moreover, the gravity of the problems is rapidly increasing.
The social and economic conditions, urban development patterns, traffic systems, and trip patterns in Asia are different, however, from those in Western metropolitan cities such as in the U.S. While the urban diffusion and traffic system developments in Western metropolitan areas gradually changed after the Industrial Revolution, metropolitan areas in Asia’s emerging countries have rapidly experienced what the Western countries had faced, within a short span of time since the 1960s. In addition, while metropolitan areas in North America have urban problems related to their heavy dependence on vehicles due to the wide scope of their low-density roadway systems, metropolitan areas in Asia have mid- and high-density urban structures, relatively low dependence on vehicles, and various types of mixed traffic modes. Moreover, the metropolitan spatial structure in most Asian emerging countries is monocentric, whereas it is more dispersed or polycentric in Western countries. In other words, the serious traffic problems in Asian metropolitan areas arose from their monocentric spatial structure and insufficient traffic infrastructure. Although their dependence on vehicles is relatively low, their traffic congestion and resulting air pollution are reaching a serious level.
This study was spawned by the following question: Is TOD, which was developed to address urban problems in Western countries, applicable to Asian metropolitan areas? To answer this question, the impact and level of convenience of changes in TOD trip modes in major metropolitan areas in developed Asian countries were determined, after which it was assessed if the alternative approaches could solve urban problems related to the traffic, environment, and energy in the Asian metropolitan areas. The Seoul metropolitan area in Korea, the Bangkok metropolitan area in Thailand, and the Manila metropolitan area in the Philippines were chosen as the target subjects. In particular, the study aimed to prove that TOD can be a tool for a comprehensive approach to solving not only traffic problems but also environment and energy issues.
To compare the changes in the TOD trip behavior in the Asian metropolitan areas and their comprehensive TOD benefits, their traffic development features and the concepts of their TOD strategies and their ongoing policy directions both at home and abroad were analyzed. Based on the analysis results, the TOD planning elements and their indexes were induced, and then the impact of such indexes on the TOD trip behavior was evaluated. For the evaluation, the change module of individual trip behavior influenced by the physical environment and the accessibility of a neighborhood unit of the city was analyzed. The result was used to induce a comprehensive TOD benefit by using the conventional 4-step Traffic Demand Model. The analysis indexes of the trip behavior were categorized by trip generation frequency and choice of trip mode, and their experimental analyses were limited to the Seoul metropolitan area. This is because the data for the two other regions had limited availability. The databases for Manila and Bangkok are still being established, as was the database for Seoul, but the analysis technique for Seoul is not applicable to Manila and Bangkok, since some of the data on individual trip behavior and spatial features in the two cities are obsolete or unavailable. Despite these obstacles, comparison of all the available data that were collected for each metropolitan area was still attempted, with the analyzed results of the Seoul case. In detail, the impact of the TOD physical environment and accessibility on the traffic mode distribution ratio in Bangkok was analyzed using the collected data. For Manila, the comprehensive TOD benefit, driven by the increasing number of railroad users near railroad stations, was estimated using the ASIF model. With the comparison of these analyses with that of Seoul, the changes in the trip behavior and the comprehensive TOD benefits in these two cities were also reviewed.
The analysis of the changes in the TOD trip behavior in the Seoul metropolitan area and the impact of the comprehensive TOD benefit by scenario showed that the TOD plan and policies can also be applied to the two other Asian cities, despite their different environmental conditions. The indexes of the trip behavior are related to each other, however, in a somewhat complicated manner. For the probability model of internal/external trip generation, categorized by trip distance and trip frequency, the external trip ratio tends to decrease due to TOD planning. For the choice of trip modes, however, there are planning elements that increase vehicle trips and show adverse relations. For instance, the probability ratio of internal trips decreases as the population density increases, but reliance on vehicles in external trips increases. In this sense, it is necessary to consider these complicated relations as TOD planning elements are applied to a policy.
To project the comprehensive benefit of TOD, this study also tried to analyze the differences between the traffic, energy, and environmental benefits based on the spatial location scenarios of 120,000 housing projects in the Seoul metropolitan area. The scenarios were categorized into that with increasing population density, that with a modified residential/non-residential mixed ratio, and that with an increasing density of 4-leg intersections, which is an index of a narrow street network. Combinations of these scenarios were also analyzed. The results showed that among various planning elements, the urban development density has a higher benefit than the mixed-land-use index. For example, as the population density increases, the comprehensive benefit reaches KRW26.2-39.1 billion/year. On the other hand, as the residential/non-residential mixed ratio changes, the benefit reaches KRW6.9-9.1 billion/year. These prove that the population density has a more significant impact than the mixed-land-use rate, because the population density has a marked impact on the model shift from vehicles, although it increases the external trip generation rate. In addition, the comprehensive benefit of the scenario, where all the three factors increase, is KRW38.6-61.2 billion/year, which is equivalent to a 147-157% increase. This result indicates that the combination of TOD planning elements can bring about much more benefits. Therefore, it is very essential to apply all the TOD planning elements to the policy in Seoul.
The analysis for Bangkok induced the trip patterns (the impact on the trip model shift ratio) according to the TOD planning elements, based on the available database. This analysis proves the effectiveness of TOD in policies, and also differs somewhat from the analysis of the Seoul case since it shows that the density and accessibility are very important planning elements, among others. For example, unlike in Seoul, the population density, employment accessibility, and in-town trip length to the CBD are the only factors that increase the model shift ratio of public transportation. The elements that influence most the model shift ratio of vehicles are the population density, employment accessibility, and trip length to employment centers. In particular, as the population density and employment accessibility increase, the model shift ratio of vehicles decreases. This implies that the TOD planning elements have a positive impact on trip behavior. Selective application of the TOD planning elements should be considered to improve policy effectiveness, however, rather than applying all the elements in the case of Seoul, since the other TOD planning elements in Bangkok were not considered in the analysis.
The analysis for Manila was carried out to identify how the comprehensive TOD benefit changes in accordance with the increasing number of users of public transportation as development projects proceed around railroad stations. In fact, it was not that easy to secure data on individual trip behavior in the Manila metropolitan area. The comprehensive benefit was KRW65.46 billion/year when the influence area was set at 1 km. The figure increased to KRW90.74 billion/year when the influence area was expanded to 2 km. This was not the experimental analysis using the actual TOD trip behavior or patterns, but was done based on the fact that the changes increased by 5% the public transportation usage index within the station influence areas. Therefore, it is difficult to say that some TOD planning elements are better than others in terms of the comprehensive TOD benefit. This analysis has some implications in terms of showing how comprehensively the increasing accessibility of public transportation influences traffic, energy, and environmental benefits.
From the results of the study on the impact of TOD plans on trip behavior and projections of comprehensive traffic, energy, and environmental benefits, three policies are proposed. First, TOD, which was very seriously pursued in Western countries, can also be applied in Asian metropolitan areas. TOD is a strategic concept that controls a low-density and mono-purpose development, focusing on vehicles, and addresses issues related to the environment, traffic, and energy through high-density mixed land use, focusing on public transportation. As in Western countries, TOD can be applied effectively in Asian metropolitan areas that have a relatively lower model shift rate of public transportation and high-density mixed land use. In this sense, this study is very meaningful because it shows that the TOD development strategy is universally applicable.
Second, this study proved that the development density, among other TOD planning elements, can augment traffic, energy, and environmental benefits by inducing changes in trip behavior. The analysis for Seoul showed that the increase in the population density more significantly increased the benefit through the trip model shift. The analysis for the Bangkok metropolitan area showed the same possibility. In short, population density can consistently induce the reduction of vehicle use and increase in public transportation use. Accordingly, efforts must be made to apply TOD planning in Asian metropolitan areas, especially with respect to the development density.
Third, based on the experimental analysis of the TOD planning elements, this study implies the need to formulate diverse policy strategies for Asian metropolitan areas, since these elements have various impacts on the choice of trip mode, the trip degeneration frequency, and the trip distance. For example, if the results of the analysis for Seoul were presumed to be the same as those of other Asian metropolitan areas, the traffic policy for the reduction of dependence on vehicles can be changed in accordance with which trip behavior are preferred to be modified. In other words, when an attempt was made to address traffic congestion by reducing the trip distance, it was necessary to set up a policy that emphasizes the mixed-land-use ratio rather than the population density. On the other hand, when an attempt was made to shift the trip models, a policy focused on the development density was needed. This is because a decrease in the trip distance can promote trip self-sufficiency, and a trip model shift tends to reduce dependence on vehicles. When these two strategies are applied at the same time, however, the impact can be offset due to their complicated effects. Therefore, a more effective and achievable strategic approach is needed to identify the serious traffic issues that metropolitan areas are facing. The comprehensive approach that uses the TOD planning elements tends to increase the overall traffic, energy, and environmental benefits, but the impact should be closely reviewed and applied through a cost-effective approach.
This study was limited in two aspects: data availability and policies for practical application. The initial purpose of this study was to assess the possibility of TOD application and to discern patterns in the three selected cities (Seoul, Bangkok, and Manila) using a single analysis methodology and the same data. There were some limits in securing data for the current year, however, so the final result was induced through a partial comparison. Therefore, another study must be conducted to address the limits of this study. In addition, it was not sufficiently revealed in this study that the metropolitan areas have different TOD planning elements. Of course, the study should be continued to disclose the origins of the analysis results. In this regard, a more in-depth study should be conducted to determine why the statistical similarity, direction, and size of the TOD planning elements can have distinguishable impacts, depending on the history, culture, and social and economic conditions of the city.
This study also proved that TOD plans induce changes in trip behavior that can have traffic, energy, and environmental benefits. To ensure that these plans would be applied, however, the systemic conditions and problems should be analyzed and relevant studies to come up with improvement measures should be conducted. These were not addressed in this study, since its purpose did not include the suggestion of strategies for realizing TOD. The identification of the system conditions and the study of improvement measures are indispensable, though. Therefore, the future study should review the systemic conditions of urban development, the planning of traffic facilities, and financing methods. In addition, of course, efforts to come up with measures for applying TOD are needed.

With regard to global development aid, international organizations such as the UN and OECD/DAC recommend ODA projects to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Against this backdrop, Korea, which joined the OECD/DAC in November 2009, has a responsibility to respond to the demand of such international communities. Meanwhile, North Africa and the Middle East have similar political, economic, social and cultural structures, and Korea secures an energy source, crude oil, from these regions. Thus, given the demand of the international community and our relationship with the regions to be analyzed in this study, economic cooperation with the regions is highly critical. When it comes to the fishery industry of the regions, while the production volume, supply and consumption are on a steady rise, the industry remains underdeveloped due to lack of fishery infrastructure and its focus on capture fisheries. Given these characteristics, new patterns can be developed for the economic cooperation with the countries of the regions through various fishery-related cooperative businesses based on our advanced knowledge and know-how on the fishery industry. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to formulate business strategies to cooperate with the fishery industry and other fishery-related industries in the Middle East and North Africa through basic studies of the fishery industry and fishery products distribution and processing sector of the regions. The poverty-related indexes of the regions show similar levels to those of Southeast Asian countries except for a few oil-producing countries. That is, although countries in the regions are not as poor as Sub-Saharan Africa, they are still considered poor from a global perspective. Thus, the function and role of the fishery industry, a food-supplying industry, are increasingly gaining more importance. From a broad perspective, while the production volume of the fishery industry in the regions is not relatively as large as those of other regions, its growth rate is high, and the people in the regions rely on fishery products as primary source of protein, which is a distinctive trend of the regions that will be further reinforced due to religious reasons. Based on this status, as well as SWOT analysis of the economic cooperation with the countries in the regions, existing fisheries-related cooperative activities (including the private sector), their poverty levels, the ODA provision status of Korea, the political status of the countries in the regions (whether country-rebuilding is required after the Jasmine Revolution), etc., Algeria, Tunisia and Libya have been selected as the priority countries for cooperation, and the status of their fishery industries and ODA assistance to these countries have been examined in detail. According to the findings of the examination, when it comes to the fishery industry, while the production volume of Algeria is the largest among the three countries, Tunisia is the most advanced in terms of the quality of production. Libya is underdeveloped in both production volume and productivity. Since the three countries are particularly underdeveloped in terms of the infrastructure of the fishery product-producing area, production methods (fishing boats and gears) and the development level of the farming industry, investment in these sectors can bring about remarkable development in the fishery industry of the countries. The status of ODA provision by countries around the world for the three countries shows the following distinctive characteristics. First, they have close relationships for economic cooperation with the countries that colonized them in the past. While Tunisia and Algeria are in a close cooperative relationship mainly with France, Libya turns to Italy. Second, they are in a close relationship for economic cooperation with advanced countries that import crude oil from them; Libya is in a close relationship with Germany. Meanwhile, fishery-related ODA is provided by a few countries – particularly Spain, Norway, Italy and Japan – unlike general ODA, and Korea has just recently begun to provide fishery-related ODA to Tunisia and Algeria. In order to promote fishery-related cooperation with North Africa and the Middle East through this case analysis, the following directions are required. Generally speaking, the directions of ODA cooperation are based on humanitarianism, reciprocity and pragmatism, and it is deemed that reciprocity should be applied to the countries due to the fact that they are not such least-developed regions as Sub-Saharan Africa; the cooperative tendency of other countries in an economic cooperative relationship with the regions (particularly ODA providers); and the relationship between Korea and the regions. Detailed strategies based on these basic directions are as follows：first, selection and concentration of economic cooperation is required in consideration of the political circumstances of the regions (the Arab Spring Uprisings); second, since the regions are in close proximity to EU countries, they can be utilized as a round-about export base for the export of Korean fishery products to EU countries; third, the fishery-related ODA for the regions should be based on a vertically-integrated management system in consideration of the development stage of the countries; fourth, in order to continue fishery-related cooperation with the regions, recipients of ODA need to improve their capabilities voluntarily through human resources-nurturing efforts; fifth, a cooperative network should be established among fishery experts for more effective and reliable fishery-related cooperation. Based on these basic directions and strategies, a few business types can be suggested：farming business based on vertically-integrated management, infrastructure improvement business for fishery products-producing areas focused on fishing port development, cooperative business related to the country-rebuilding project of the regions, etc. This study has conducted basic studies aimed at promoting fishery-related cooperation with North Africa and the Middle East to fulfill its purpose. Since it was impossible to conduct studies on all the countries in the regions due to time and cost constraints, three key countries have been selected to ensure the efficiency of this study. It is deemed to be necessary to continue conducting studies on the regions to overcome these limitations.